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Explaining Interest Rate Decisions when the MPC Members Believe in Different Stories

Author

Listed:
  • Carl Andreas Claussen

    (Sveriges Riksbank)

  • Øistein Røisland

    (Norges Bank)

Abstract

Most central banks explain interest rate decisions, i.e., they provide a story. With committee decisions, it can be difficult to find a story that is both consistent with the decision and representative for the committee. We consider two alternative procedures: (i) vote on the interest rate and let the winner decide the story, or (ii) vote on the elements of the story and let the interest rate follow from the story. The two procedures tend to result in different outcomes due to an aggregation inconsistency called the discursive dilemma. We find that (ii) tends to yield better stories.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Andreas Claussen & Øistein Røisland, 2015. "Explaining Interest Rate Decisions when the MPC Members Believe in Different Stories," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 41-64, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2015:q:2:a:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    2. List, Christian & Polak, Ben, 2010. "Introduction to judgment aggregation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 441-466, March.
    3. Blinder, Alan S., 2007. "Monetary policy by committee: Why and how?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 106-123, March.
    4. Anand, Paul & Pattanaik, Prasanta & Puppe, Clemens (ed.), 2009. "The Handbook of Rational and Social Choice," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199290420.
    5. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    7. Claussen, Carl Andreas & Matsen, Egil & Røisland, Øistein & Torvik, Ragnar, 2012. "Overconfidence, monetary policy committees and chairman dominance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 699-711.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations

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