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DSGE Models: I Smell a Rat (and It Smells Good)

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  • Jon Faust

    (Johns Hopkins University and NBER)

Abstract

DSGE models have now reached a point where they can and do serve an important role in the monetary policy process. From the standpoint of real-world policymaking, however, there remain important areas of omission and coarse approximation in these models. I argue that macroeconomics should follow other fields such as toxicology in having a formal literature on how best to use models that are far from perfect as a basis for public policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jon Faust, 2012. "DSGE Models: I Smell a Rat (and It Smells Good)," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 53-64, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2012:q:1:a:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gupta, Abhishek, 2010. "A Forecasting Metric for Evaluating DSGE Models for Policy Analysis," MPRA Paper 26718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2010. "Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 85-102, Fall.
    3. Faust, Jon & Gupta, Abhishek, 2010. "Posterior Predictive Analysis for Evaluating DSGE Models," MPRA Paper 26721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E., 2005. "Challenges For Econometric Model Selection," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 60-68, February.
    5. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
    2. Raffaella Giacomini, 2015. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 22-41, June.
    3. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    4. Raffaella Giacomini, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CeMMAP working papers 41/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Chatterjee, Sidharta, 2014. "Equilibrium Models of Macroeconomic Science: What to Look For in (DSGE) Models?," MPRA Paper 53893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Martin Slanicay & Jan Čapek & Miroslav Hloušek, 2016. "Some Notes On Problematic Issues In Dsge Models," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(210), pages 79-100, July - Se.
    7. Spahn, Peter, 2013. "Subprime and euro crisis: Should we blame the economists?," FZID Discussion Papers 83-2013, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
    8. Sebastian Dullien, 2012. "Is new always better than old? On the treatment of fiscal policy in Keynesian models," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(0), pages 5-23.
    9. Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2018. "How costly is a misspecified credit channel DSGE model in monetary policymaking?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 484-505.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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