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Stress Testing the Enterprise Sector's Bank Debt: A Micro Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Eivind Bernhardsen

    (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway)

  • Bjorne Dyre Syversten

    (Norges Bank)

Abstract

This paper describes Norges Bank’s micro stress-testing framework for assessing the Norwegian banking sector’s losses on loans to the nonfinancial enterprise sector. Using projected macro variables and a stock-flow approach, annual financial statements of every firm in Norway are projected five years ahead. The loan loss potential is then assessed using a creditscoring model. We present a backtest of projections, taking the history of macro variables as given. Our results are fairly good using a relatively simple setup, and we conclude that stockflow projections of financial statements can be useful for stress testing banks’ loan portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Eivind Bernhardsen & Bjorne Dyre Syversten, 2009. "Stress Testing the Enterprise Sector's Bank Debt: A Micro Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 111-138, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:3:a:4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hausman, J. A. & Abrevaya, Jason & Scott-Morton, F. M., 1998. "Misclassification of the dependent variable in a discrete-response setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 239-269, September.
    2. Lewbel, Arthur, 2000. "Identification Of The Binary Choice Model With Misclassification," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 603-609, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stijn Ferrari & Patrick Van Roy & Cristina Vespro, 2011. "Stress testing credit risk: modelling issues," Financial Stability Review, National Bank of Belgium, vol. 9(1), pages 105-120, June.
    2. Ferrari, Stijn & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2021. "Sensitivity of credit risk stress test results: Modelling issues with an application to Belgium," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • M49 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Other

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