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The failure of the new macroeconomic consensus: from non-ergodicity to the efficient markets hypothesis and back again

Author

Listed:
  • Nigel F.B. Allington
  • John S.L. McCombie
  • Maureen Pike

Abstract

The subprime crisis raised some fundamental questions about the usefulness of mainstream economics. This paper considers the shortcomings of the new neoclassical synthesis and the new macroeconomic consensus in analysing the causes and consequences of the crisis. It demonstrates that the major problem was the assumption that the future could be modelled in terms of Knightian risk (as in the rational expectations and efficient markets hypotheses). It is shown that the near collapse of the banking system in the advanced countries was due to a rapid increase in uncertainty. Suggestions are made for the future development of financial macroeconomics using the insights from behavioural economics.

Suggested Citation

  • Nigel F.B. Allington & John S.L. McCombie & Maureen Pike, 2011. "The failure of the new macroeconomic consensus: from non-ergodicity to the efficient markets hypothesis and back again," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2/3), pages 4-21.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijpubp:v:7:y:2011:i:1/2/3:p:4-21
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mario A Bertella & Henio A Rego & Celso Neris Jr. & Jonathas N Silva & Boris Podobnik & H Eugene Stanley, 2015. "Interaction between Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Dynamic Nonlinear Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Michal Jurek & Pawel Marszalek, 2015. "Policy alternatives for the relationship between ECB monetary and financial policies and new member states," Working papers wpaper112, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    3. Paweł Marszałek & Katarzyna Szarzec, 2023. "The good, the bad or the ugly: financialization through heterodox and mainstream lenses," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(3), pages 239-258.
    4. Arne Heise, 2014. "The Future of Economics in a Lakatos–Bourdieu Framework," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 70-93, July.
    5. Alan Karaev K. & А. Караев К., 2017. "Нелинейная динамическая модель взаимодействия фискальной и монетарной политик России // A Nonlinear Dynamic Model of the Russian Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction," Экономика. Налоги. Право // Economics, taxes & law, ФГОБУ "Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации" // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 10(3), pages 43-51.
    6. D. M. Nachane, 2016. "Global Crisis, Regulatory Reform and International Policy Coordination," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 5(1), pages 63-95, June.

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