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World post-Kyoto scenarios: benefits from accelerated technology progress

Author

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  • Nikolaos Kouvaritakis
  • Patrick Criqui
  • Claude Thonet

Abstract

This paper addresses the issue of the potential benefits from technological change in post Kyoto CO2 emission reduction scenarios. In order to assess these benefits, it is necessary in Section 2 to define CO2 emission entitlements by world region, in a way that allows both for a significant global reduction from the reference in 2030 and for an acceptable burden sharing among world regions. The economic consequences of this entitlement scenario are explored in detail in Section 3, under the hypotheses of on-going trends for technology dynamics and of full world trading for emission permits. Section 4 then introduces the "Technology Stories", corresponding to hypotheses of breakthroughs in the performances and costs of six distinct power generation technology clusters. The Technology Stories and their impacts on CO2 marginal and total abatement costs are then studied in detail, both at world level and in a regional perspective. One key result of this paper is a quantitative assessment of the significant reductions in the compliance costs that may be expected from improvements in low-carbon generation technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Kouvaritakis & Patrick Criqui & Claude Thonet, 2000. "World post-Kyoto scenarios: benefits from accelerated technology progress," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 14(1/2/3/4), pages 184-203.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijgeni:v:14:y:2000:i:1/2/3/4:p:184-203
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    Cited by:

    1. Criqui, P. & Mima, S. & Menanteau, P. & Kitous, A., 2015. "Mitigation strategies and energy technology learning: An assessment with the POLES model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 119-136.
    2. Hidalgo, Ignacio & Szabo, Laszlo & Carlos Ciscar, Juan & Soria, Antonio, 2005. "Technological prospects and CO2 emission trading analyses in the iron and steel industry: A global model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 583-610.
    3. Kypreos, Socrates & Turton, Hal, 2011. "Climate change scenarios and Technology Transfer Protocols," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 844-853, February.

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