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Modelling of cascading effects and efficient response to disaster spreading in complex networks

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  • K. Peters
  • L. Buzna
  • D. Helbing

Abstract

In order to assess cascading effects in directed networks, we present a model for the dynamics of failure spreading. The model combines network nodes as active, bistable elements and delayed interactions along directed links. Through simulations, we study the dynamics behaviour of generic sample networks. Besides evaluating the failure cascades, for which we observe a critical threshold for the undamped spreading of failures in a network, we simulated the effect of different strategies for the management of spreading disasters. Our recovery strategies are based on the assumption that the interaction structure of the challenged network remains unchanged, while additional resources for mitigation actions, improving the recovery capacities of system components, can be distributed over the network. The simulations clearly demonstrate that the topology of a network is a crucial factor both for the behaviour under external disturbances and for the optimality of different strategies to cope with an evolving disaster. Our model may be used to improve disaster preparedness and anticipative disaster response management.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Peters & L. Buzna & D. Helbing, 2008. "Modelling of cascading effects and efficient response to disaster spreading in complex networks," International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 46-62.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcist:v:4:y:2008:i:1/2:p:46-62
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yuejuan Chen & Jin Zhang & Anchao Zhou & Bo Yin, 2018. "Modeling and analysis of mining subsidence disaster chains based on stochastic Petri nets," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 19-41, May.
    2. Zio, Enrico, 2016. "Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 137-150.
    3. Jiajun Wang & Zhichao He & Wenguo Weng, 2020. "A review of the research into the relations between hazards in multi-hazard risk analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2003-2026, December.
    4. Dirk Helbing & Pratik Mukerji, "undated". "Crowd Disasters as Systemic Failures: Analysis of the Love Parade Disaster," Working Papers ETH-RC-12-010, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    5. Gianluca Pescaroli & David Alexander, 2018. "Understanding Compound, Interconnected, Interacting, and Cascading Risks: A Holistic Framework," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2245-2257, November.
    6. Huicong Jia & Fang Chen & Donghua Pan, 2019. "Disaster Chain Analysis of Avalanche and Landslide and the River Blocking Dam of the Yarlung Zangbo River in Milin County of Tibet on 17 and 29 October 2018," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-12, November.
    7. Wang, Jianwei, 2013. "Mitigation strategies on scale-free networks against cascading failures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(9), pages 2257-2264.
    8. Olga Bucovetchi & Alexandru Georgescu & Dorel Badea & Radu D. Stanciu, 2019. "Agent-Based Modeling (ABM): Support for Emphasizing the Air Transport Infrastructure Dependence of Space Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-18, September.
    9. Lin Xie & Mary Ann Lundteigen & Yiliu Liu, 2020. "Reliability and barrier assessment of series–parallel systems subject to cascading failures," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(3), pages 455-469, June.
    10. Chao Zhang & Jiansong Wu & Chao Huang & Bo Jiang, 2018. "A model for the representation of emergency cases," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(1), pages 337-351, March.
    11. Huang, Wencheng & Zhou, Bowen & Yu, Yaocheng & Sun, Hao & Xu, Pengpeng, 2021. "Using the disaster spreading theory to analyze the cascading failure of urban rail transit network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

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