Trends and drivers of change in the European automotive industry: (II) scenarios and implications

This paper follows on from the mapping exercise covered in the first article. The authors consider four possible scenarios for the future development of the European car industry. These are primarily based on the strength of demand inside and outside Europe, and the extent to which variation might be accompanied by a faster or slower rate of consolidation of vehicle makers and suppliers. The scenarios take account of the growth of new players from emerging car markets, such as China or India, the legislative framework and consumer choice. They enable consideration of the impact of demand on production geography, organisational and manufacturing change, total employment and employment conditions and contracts and the role of public policy.