IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ids/ijatma/v21y2021i4p273-294.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Business cycle and uncertainties: evaluating the behaviour of the automotive industry in relation to the COVID-19 period in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Gerlane Gonçalves De Andrade
  • Admir Antonio Betarelli Junior
  • Carlos Alberto Gonçalves Da Silva
  • Weslem Rodrigues Faria

Abstract

Drawing on autoregressive vector (VAR) model, this paper analyses supply and demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles in Brazil from January 2012 to February 2020. Then, it points out how the automotive activity in the country responds to shocks of political proposals or unexpected shocks. The results on the short-term forecast suggest that credit, income, price, and tax influence the business cycles of the industry and returns to a stationary trend over a period of five months. Therefore, the analysis suggests that the automotive activity has a capacity for quick recovery in face of an eventual adverse shock, such as COVID-19 outbreak. This convergence time can be shortened by credit and tax reduction policies, as well as the new automation and electrification technologies in the automotive industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlane Gonçalves De Andrade & Admir Antonio Betarelli Junior & Carlos Alberto Gonçalves Da Silva & Weslem Rodrigues Faria, 2021. "Business cycle and uncertainties: evaluating the behaviour of the automotive industry in relation to the COVID-19 period in Brazil," International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(4), pages 273-294.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijatma:v:21:y:2021:i:4:p:273-294
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=119403
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ids:ijatma:v:21:y:2021:i:4:p:273-294. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Parker (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=2 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.