IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ids/gbusec/v18y2016i5p533-549.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Parametric and non-parametric analysis of tax changes

Author

Listed:
  • James Bugden
  • Robert Waschik
  • Iain Fraser
  • Jeffrey S. Racine

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the net effect of several major tax changes in Australia on residential property prices. Specifically, we consider the announcement and introduction effects that resulted from several policy changes including the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the accompanying First Home Owner Grant (FHOG). Using a large dataset of residential property sales in Melbourne, Australia, between 1992 and 2002 we estimate various models using parametric and non-parametric methods. While our parametric models suggest that the tax policy changes appear to have a statistically significant impact on house prices, no economically significant impact is detected by our non-parametric models, nor (upon closer inspection) by the parametric models themselves. Given the enormity of the sample size, this provides a telling example of the fundamental difference between statistical and economic significance and its implications for detecting government policy effectiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • James Bugden & Robert Waschik & Iain Fraser & Jeffrey S. Racine, 2016. "Parametric and non-parametric analysis of tax changes," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 18(5), pages 533-549.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:gbusec:v:18:y:2016:i:5:p:533-549
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=78669
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Racine, Jeff & Stengos, Thanasis, 2007. "Growth and convergence: A profile of distribution dynamics and mobility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 483-508, February.
    3. Peter Hall & Qi Li & Jeffrey S. Racine, 2007. "Nonparametric Estimation of Regression Functions in the Presence of Irrelevant Regressors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 784-789, November.
    4. Racine, Jeff & Li, Qi, 2004. "Nonparametric estimation of regression functions with both categorical and continuous data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 99-130, March.
    5. Glaeser, Edward L. & Sacerdote, Bruce, 2000. "The Social Consequences of Housing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-23, March.
    6. Leung, Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 249-267, December.
    7. Jeffery Racine & Jeffrey Hart & Qi Li, 2006. "Testing the Significance of Categorical Predictor Variables in Nonparametric Regression Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 523-544.
    8. John Freebairn, 1999. "Tax Reform Proposals And Housing," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 18(3), pages 73-84, September.
    9. Demiralp, Selva & Jorda, Oscar, 2004. "The Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 387-405, June.
    10. Productivity Commission, 2004. "First Home Ownership," Others 0410007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Racine, Jeffrey S., 2008. "Nonparametric Econometrics: A Primer," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(1), pages 1-88, March.
    12. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
    13. repec:bla:ausecr:v:39:y:2006:i:1:p:14-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Peter Abelson & Roselyne Joyeux & George Milunovich & Demi Chung, 2005. "Explaining House Prices in Australia: 1970–2003," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(s1), pages 96-103, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Henderson, Daniel J. & Papageorgiou, Chris & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2013. "Who benefits from financial development? New methods, new evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 47-67.
    2. Simar, Leopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2011. "To Smooth or Not to Smooth? The Case of Discrete Variables in Nonparametric Regressions," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011042, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    3. Michael S. Delgado & Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2014. "Does Education Matter for Economic Growth?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 334-359, June.
    4. Arribas Ivan & Perez Francisco & Tortosa-Ausina Emili, 2010. "The Determinants of International Financial Integration Revisited: The Role of Networks and Geographic Neutrality," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-55, December.
    5. Manuel Hernandez & Maximo Torero, 2014. "Parametric versus nonparametric methods in risk scoring: an application to microcredit," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 1057-1079, May.
    6. Abhijit Sharma & Alastair Bailey & Iain Fraser, 2011. "Technology Adoption and Pest Control Strategies Among UK Cereal Farmers: Evidence from Parametric and Nonparametric Count Data Models," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 73-92, February.
    7. Jesús Peiró-Palomino, 2016. "Social Capital and Economic Growth in Europe: Nonlinear Trends and Heterogeneous Regional Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 717-751, October.
    8. Ekpeno L. Effiong & Emmanuel E. Asuquo, 2017. "Migrants' Remittances, Governance and Heterogeneity," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 535-554, October.
    9. Daniel J. Henderson, 2009. "A Non‐parametric Examination of Capital–Skill Complementarity," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(4), pages 519-538, August.
    10. Daniel J. Henderson, 2010. "A test for multimodality of regression derivatives with application to nonparametric growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 458-480.
    11. Michael S. Delgado & Nadine McCloud, 2017. "Foreign direct investment and the domestic capital stock: the good–bad role of higher institutional quality," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1587-1637, December.
    12. Li, Degui & Simar, Léopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2016. "Generalized nonparametric smoothing with mixed discrete and continuous data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 424-444.
    13. Tomasz Czekaj & Arne Henningsen, 2013. "Panel Data Specifications in Nonparametric Kernel Regression: An Application to Production Functions," IFRO Working Paper 2013/5, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    14. Mengistu Assefa Wendimu & Arne Henningsen & Tomasz Gerard Czekaj, 2017. "Incentives and moral hazard: plot level productivity of factory-operated and outgrower-operated sugarcane production in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 48(5), pages 549-560, September.
    15. Xibin Zhang & Maxwell L. King & Han Lin Shang, 2016. "Bayesian Bandwidth Selection for a Nonparametric Regression Model with Mixed Types of Regressors," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, April.
    16. Zongwu Cai & Qi Li, 2013. "Some Recent Develop- ments on Nonparametric Econometrics," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    17. Byeong Park & Léopold Simar & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2015. "Categorical data in local maximum likelihood: theory and applications to productivity analysis," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 199-214, April.
    18. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
    19. Nolwenn Roudaut & Anne Vanhems, 2012. "Explaining firms efficiency in the Ivorian manufacturing sector: a robust nonparametric approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 155-169, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tax changes; housing; non-parametric analysis; hedonic modelling; parametric analysis; Australia; house prices; residential property prices; tax policy; government policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ids:gbusec:v:18:y:2016:i:5:p:533-549. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Parker (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=168 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.