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Credit Downturn In The Aftermath Of Indonesian Crisis 1997 Revisited: An Application Of Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

Author

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  • Erwin Gunawan Hutapea

    (Bank Indonesia)

Abstract

Studi ini bertujuan mengestimasi persamaan jangka panjang permintaan kredit dan penawaran kredit di Indonesia dengan menggunakan teknik pengujian kointegrasi yang relatif baru, yaitu teknik autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing. Data yang digunakan adalah data kuartalan pada periode 1985Q1-2004Q2. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa permintaan kredit dan penawaran kredit memiliki hubungan jangka panjang (terkointegrasi) dengan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya. Selain itu, pengujian CUSUM dan CUSUMSQ menunjukkan bahwa koefisien kedua persamaan jangka panjang tersebut memiliki stabilitas. Plot estimasi permintaan kredit dan penawaran kredit menunjukkan bahwa lambatnya proses pemulihan penyaluran kredit setelah krisis di Indonesia lebih banyak disebabkan oleh lemahnya permintaan kredit.

Suggested Citation

  • Erwin Gunawan Hutapea, 2007. "Credit Downturn In The Aftermath Of Indonesian Crisis 1997 Revisited: An Application Of Ardl Bounds Testing Approach," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 9(4), pages 5-22, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:9:y:2007:i:4a:p:5-22
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v9i4.212
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    2. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2004. "The credit crunch in East Asia: what can bank excess liquid assets tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 27-49, February.
    3. Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Swart R. Ghosh, 1999. "East Asia in the Aftermath: Was there a Crunch?," IMF Working Papers 1999/038, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Raymond Chi Wing Ng, 2002. "Long-Run Demand for Money in Hong Kong: An Application of the ARDL Model," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(2), pages 147-155, August.
    5. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1996. "A Credit Crunch? a Case Study of Finland in the Aftermath of the Banking Crisis," IMF Working Papers 1996/135, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARDL; cointegration; bounds testing; ECM; credit; Indonesia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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