IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/idn/journl/v27y2024i1bp25-82.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Did COVID-19 Disrupt the Stock Market Return and Volatility? A Meta-Analytic Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Masagus M. Ridhwan

    (Bank Indonesia, Indonesia)

  • Solikin M. Juhro

    (Bank Indonesia, Indonesia)

  • Affandi Ismail

    (SMERU Research Institute, Indonesia)

  • Peter Nijkamp

    (Open University, Netherlands)

  • Kelvin Ramadhan Hidayat

    (Bank Indonesia, Indonesia)

Abstract

We provide a quantitative synthesis of the literature utilizing meta-regression analysis on the measurable effect of the combined health and economic crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic on stock market returns and volatility. This study is conducted based on 104 studies published during the period 2020 to 2022. We find strong evidence of a negative publication bias for COVID-19 impacts on stock market returns and a positive bias on volatility. We document that COVID-19 has a moderate negative effect on stock market returns. Estimates based on intraday stock returns show a greater effect compared to those using daily returns, whereas estimates using weekly returns exhibit the opposite trend . The market reacts more negatively to the COVID-19related news than the number of COVID-19 cases/deaths. Overall, this study confirms the disruptive effect of COVID-19 pandemic on stock market performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Masagus M. Ridhwan & Solikin M. Juhro & Affandi Ismail & Peter Nijkamp & Kelvin Ramadhan Hidayat, 2024. "Did COVID-19 Disrupt the Stock Market Return and Volatility? A Meta-Analytic Approach," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 27(1), pages 25-82, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:27:y:2024:i:1b:p:25-82
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.59091/2460-9196.2193
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bulletin.bmeb-bi.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2193&context=bmeb
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.59091/2460-9196.2193?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pattanaporn Chatjuthamard & Pavitra Jindahra & Pattarake Sarajoti & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2021. "The effect of COVID‐19 on the global stock market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4923-4953, September.
    2. Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Serpil Kiliç Depren & Özer Depren, 2021. "How Main Stock Exchange Indices React to Covid-19 Pandemic: Daily Evidence from East Asian Countries," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 54-71, January.
    3. Al-Awadhi, Abdullah M. & Alsaifi, Khaled & Al-Awadhi, Ahmad & Alhammadi, Salah, 2020. "Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    4. Markus Brueckner & Joaquin Vespignani, 2021. "COVID‐19 Infections and the Performance of the Stock Market: An Empirical Analysis for Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(3), pages 173-193, September.
    5. Furukawa, Chishio, 2019. "Publication Bias under Aggregation Frictions: Theory, Evidence, and a New Correction Method," EconStor Preprints 194798, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. P. K. Mishra & S. K. Mishra, 2020. "Corona Pandemic and Stock Market Behaviour: Empirical Insights from Selected Asian Countries," Millennial Asia, , vol. 11(3), pages 341-365, December.
    7. Cheng, Tingting & Liu, Junli & Yao, Wenying & Zhao, Albert Bo, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility connectedness network of global stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Farhan Ahmed & Aamir Aijaz Syed & Muhammad Abdul Kamal & Maria de las Nieves López-García & Jose Pedro Ramos-Requena & Swati Gupta, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Stock and Commodity Markets Performance and Sustainability: A Comparative Analysis of South Asian Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-16, May.
    9. Anasuya Haldar & Narayan Sethi, 2021. "The News Effect Of Covid-19 On Global Financial Market Volatility," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 24(Special I), pages 33-58, January.
    10. Min Liu & Wei-Chong Choo & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2020. "The Response of the Stock Market to the Announcement of Global Pandemic," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(15), pages 3562-3577, December.
    11. Theo S. Eicher & Chris Papageorgiou & Adrian E. Raftery, 2011. "Default priors and predictive performance in Bayesian model averaging, with application to growth determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 30-55, January/F.
    12. Emre Cevik & Buket Kirci Altinkeski & Emrah Ismail Cevik & Sel Dibooglu, 2022. "Investor sentiments and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-34, December.
    13. Nader Alber & Amr Saleh, 2020. "The Impact of Covid-19 Spread on Stock Markets: The Case of the GCC Countries," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(11), pages 1-16, November.
    14. Baek, Seungho & Mohanty, Sunil K. & Glambosky, Mina, 2020. "COVID-19 and stock market volatility: An industry level analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    15. John P. A. Ioannidis & T. D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2017. "The Power of Bias in Economics Research," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 236-265, October.
    16. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2021. "Stock markets’ reaction to Covid-19: Moderating role of national culture," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    17. Anas Ali Al-Qudah & Asma Houcine, 2021. "Stock markets' reaction to COVID-19: evidence from the six WHO regions," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(2), pages 274-289, February.
    18. HaiYue Liu & Yile Wang & Dongmei He & Cangyu Wang, 2020. "Short term response of Chinese stock markets to the outbreak of COVID-19," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(53), pages 5859-5872, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Naidu, Dharmendra & Ranjeeni, Kumari, 2021. "Effect of coronavirus fear on the performance of Australian stock returns: Evidence from an event study," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Zigraiova, Diana & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2021. "How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Irsova, Zuzana & Doucouliagos, Hristos & Havranek, Tomas & Stanley, T. D., 2023. "Meta-Analysis of Social Science Research: A Practitioner’s Guide," EconStor Preprints 273719, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. ATM Adnan & Sameer Al Johani, 2023. "Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19: A Cross-Sectional Industry Analysis in Frontier Market," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 12(2), pages 157-181, July.
    5. Gric, Zuzana & Bajzík, Josef & Badura, Ondřej, 2023. "Does sentiment affect stock returns? A meta-analysis across survey-based measures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Elżbieta Kacperska & Jakub Kraciuk, 2021. "Changes in the Stock Market of Food Industry Companies during the COVID-19 Pandemic—A Comparative Analysis of Poland and Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-17, November.
    7. Michael Chletsos & Andreas Sintos, 2023. "Financial development and income inequality: A meta‐analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1090-1119, September.
    8. Kroupova, Katerina & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2024. "Student Employment and Education: A Meta-Analysis," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    9. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Li, Xiao-Ming, 2024. "Stabilizing global foreign exchange markets in the time of COVID-19: The role of vaccinations," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    10. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    11. O'Donnell, Niall & Shannon, Darren & Sheehan, Barry, 2023. "A vaccine for volatility? An empirical analysis of global stock markets and the impact of the COVID-19 vaccine," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    12. Zaheda Daruwala, 2022. "Reactive or Immune: Stock Market Behaviour During Subsequent Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 92-106, November.
    13. Isabel Carrillo-Hidalgo & Juan Ignacio Pulido-Fernández & José Luis Durán-Román & Jairo Casado-Montilla, 2023. "COVID-19 and tourism sector stock price in Spain: medium-term relationship through dynamic regression models," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, December.
    14. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Colin F. Mang, 2022. "Do remittances cause Dutch Disease? A meta-analytic review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(36), pages 4131-4153, August.
    15. Mandon, Pierre & Woldemichael, Martha Tesfaye, 2023. "Has Chinese aid benefited recipient countries? Evidence from a meta-regression analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    16. Rouatbi, Wael & Demir, Ender & Kizys, Renatas & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Immunizing markets against the pandemic: COVID-19 vaccinations and stock volatility around the world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    17. Sintos, Andreas, 2023. "Does inflation worsen income inequality? A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(4).
    18. Bajzik, Josef & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Schwarz, Jiri, 2020. "Estimating the Armington elasticity: The importance of study design and publication bias," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    19. Martina Luskova, 2024. "The Effect of Face Masks on Covid Transmission: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers IES 2024/2, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2024.
    20. Bajzik, Josef, 2021. "Trading volume and stock returns: A meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    A meta-regression analysis; COVID-19; Stock market return; Stock market volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:27:y:2024:i:1b:p:25-82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lutzardo Tobing The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Lutzardo Tobing to update the entry or send us the correct address or Jimmy Kathon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bigovid.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.