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Determinant Of Food Inflation : The Case Of Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Bambang I. Ismaya

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Donni F. Anugrah

    (Bank Indonesia)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the determinants of food inflation in Indonesia. Using quarterly data (2008:Q1 to 2017:Q4) and a GMM estimator, we show that backward-looking and forward-looking expectations have a strong impact on food inflation. Additionally, we show that the determinants of general food price inflation, such as food production, agriculture sector output, infrastructure, food import, agriculture sector credit, demand level (M1/consumption), and seasonal event (Eid Mubarak), are highly significant. Backward-looking and forward-looking expectations, domestic oil price, and level of demand have contributed to high food price while factors relating to general food price inflation have reduced food price.

Suggested Citation

  • Bambang I. Ismaya & Donni F. Anugrah, 2018. "Determinant Of Food Inflation : The Case Of Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 21(1), pages 81-94, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:21:y:2018:i:1:p:81-94
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v21i1.926
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Wheat?," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 213-234..
    2. Wimanda, Rizki E. & Turner, Paul M. & Hall, Maximilian J.B., 2011. "Expectations and the inertia of inflation: The case of Indonesia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 426-438, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Moh. Hairus Zaman & Diah Wahyuningsih & Ris Yuwono Yudo Nugroho, 2025. "The Response of Farmer Welfares Amidst Food Prices Shock and Inflation in the Province of East Java," Papers 2501.08601, arXiv.org.
    2. Fertő, Imre & Bareith, Tibor, 2024. "Does Monetary Policy Stabilise Food Inflation in Hungary?," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 16(4), December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation’s determinants; Expectations; Indonesia; GMM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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