Passenger Vehicle Emissions in Indonesia: Future Projections

This study examines the effect of the low-cost green car (LCGC) policy that was introduced to control emissions from passenger vehicles in Indonesia. We examine the policy’s effectiveness by estimating the level of emissions of CO, HC, NO, CO2 under two scenarios- with and without LCGCs. The affordable price of LCGCs and the strict enforcement of the vehicle purchase system led us to estimate the growth in the number of vehicles using minimum annual income as a measure of people’s ability to buy a new car. An annual income of US$4,500–$10,000 was considered to represent the people who could buy an LCGC. Annual travel distance was obtained from a survey of drivers, and the deterioration factor from the Euro 2 standard was used. The results showed that the LCGC policy will potentially cause a significant increase in emissions of CO, HC, and NO by 2030. The LCGC scenario predicted 1,389.7, 31.0, and 279.5 tons of CO, NO, and HC, respectively, compared with 670.3, 15.1, and 136.6 tons, respectively, for the scenario without LCGCs, an increase of 51.7%, 48%, and 51.2%, respectively. For amount of CO2, although LCGC policy could save more than 104,881 tons, the gap is increasing until end of projection in 2030, 3.3 times bigger between corresponding year, 49,411 tons and 14,892 tons for with and without LCGC policy, respectively.