IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/ijefaa/v13y2021i4p47.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Analysis of Criminal Behavior: An Application of Empirical Mode Decomposition

Author

Listed:
  • Raphael Douglas de Freitas Lucena
  • Rodolfo Ferreira Ribeiro Costa
  • Ivan Castelar
  • Francisco Soares de Lima

Abstract

Our objective is to measure the permanent and transitory components of criminality in Brazilian states by using the methodology proposed by At and Chappe (2005). The empirical strategy used follows the Empirical Mode Decomposition method (EMD), proposed by Huang et al. (1998). Based on a sample collected using the Mortality Information System (SIM) from DATASUS, the decomposition process was carried out for the 27 Brazilian states from 1996 to 2015. The results of the decomposition for criminality show that the choice for crime occurs, for the largest part, due to permanent elements, which is a predictor of future crimes over time. The decomposition of criminality into these two types of components establishes some evidence regarding criminal behavior that can serve as reference for policy makers, since the implications of the results found raise questions about the policies to confront and reduce crime.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Douglas de Freitas Lucena & Rodolfo Ferreira Ribeiro Costa & Ivan Castelar & Francisco Soares de Lima, 2021. "Dynamic Analysis of Criminal Behavior: An Application of Empirical Mode Decomposition," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(4), pages 1-47, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:13:y:2021:i:4:p:47
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/download/0/0/44921/47533
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/0/44921
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    3. David S. Lee & Justin McCrary, 2017. "The Deterrence Effect of Prison: Dynamic Theory and Evidence," Advances in Econometrics, in: Regression Discontinuity Designs, volume 38, pages 73-146, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Peter-Jan Engelen, 2004. "Criminal Behavior: A Real Option Approach With an Application to Restricting Illegal Insider Trading," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 329-352, May.
    5. Antonio Aguirre, 1995. "Uma introdução à análise espectral de séries temporais econômicas," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 5(1), pages 41-60, August.
    6. Ari Francisco de Araujo Junior & Pablo Fajnzylber, 2001. "O que causa a criminalidade violenta no Brasil? Uma análise a partir do modelo econômico do crime: 1981 a 1996," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td162, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    7. Kožić, Ivan & Sever, Ivan, 2014. "Measuring business cycles: Empirical Mode Decomposition of economic time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 287-290.
    8. Rodrigo R. Soares & Joana Naritomi, 2010. "Understanding High Crime Rates in Latin America: The Role of Social and Policy Factors," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Crime: Lessons For and From Latin America, pages 19-55, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Lott, John R, Jr, 1992. "Do We Punish High Income Criminals Too Heavily?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 30(4), pages 583-608, October.
    10. H. Naci Mocan & Stephen C. Billups & Jody Overland, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Differential Human Capital and Criminal Activity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(288), pages 655-681, November.
    11. David S. Lee & Justin McCrary, 2009. "The Deterrence Effect of Prison: Dynamic Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 1168, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    12. David S. Lee & Justin McCrary, 2009. "The Deterrence Effect of Prison: Dynamic Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 1168, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    13. Antonio Aguirre, 1995. "Uma introdução à análise espectral de séries temporais econômicas," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 081, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    14. Levitt, Steven D, 1997. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 270-290, June.
    15. David S. Lee & Justin McCrary, 2009. "The Deterrence Effect of Prison: Dynamic Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 1171, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ater, Itai & Givati, Yehonatan & Rigbi, Oren, 2014. "Organizational structure, police activity and crime," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 62-71.
    2. Brian Bell & Anna Bindler & Stephen Machin, 2018. "Crime Scars: Recessions and the Making of Career Criminals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(3), pages 392-404, July.
    3. Benjamin Hansen, 2015. "Punishment and Deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1581-1617, April.
    4. Echazu, Luciana & Nocetti, Diego, 2019. "Understanding risky behaviors during adolescence: A model of self-discovery through experimentation," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 12-21.
    5. Gehrsitz, Markus, 2017. "Speeding, Punishment, and Recidivism: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," IZA Discussion Papers 10707, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Aaron Chalfin & Justin McCrary, 2013. "The Effect of Police on Crime: New Evidence from U.S. Cities, 1960-2010," NBER Working Papers 18815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Laura Jaitman, 2019. "Frontiers in the economics of crime: lessons for Latin America and the Caribbean," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 28(1), pages 1-36, December.
    8. Beatty, Timothy K.M. & Blow, Laura & Crossley, Thomas F. & O'Dea, Cormac, 2014. "Cash by any other name? Evidence on labeling from the UK Winter Fuel Payment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 86-96.
    9. Lihui Zhang, 2016. "Are youth offenders responsive to changing sanctions? Evidence from the Canadian Youth Criminal Justice Act of 2003," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(2), pages 515-554, May.
    10. Entorf, Horst, 2012. "Expected recidivism among young offenders: Comparing specific deterrence under juvenile and adult criminal law," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 414-429.
    11. Giovanni Mastrobuoni & Paolo Pinotti, 2015. "Legal Status and the Criminal Activity of Immigrants," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 175-206, April.
    12. Entorf, Horst, 2011. "Turning 18: What a Difference Application of Adult Criminal Law Makes," IZA Discussion Papers 5434, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Jason M. Lindo & Charles Stoecker, 2014. "Drawn Into Violence: Evidence On “What Makes A Criminal” From The Vietnam Draft Lotteries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 239-258, January.
    14. Arlen Guarín & Andrés Ramírez Hassan & Juan G. Villegas, 2015. "Fast reaction police units in Medellín: A budget-constrained maximal homicide covering location approach," Borradores de Economia 908, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Lotti, Giulia, 2016. "Tough on young offenders : harmful or helpful?," Economic Research Papers 269320, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    16. Ana Maria Ibanez & Catherine Rodriguez & David Zarruk, 2013. "Crime, Punishment, and Schooling Decisions: Evidence from Colombian Adolescents," Research Department Publications IDB-WP-413, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    17. Saori Chiba & Kaiwen Leong, 2016. "Behavioral Economics of Crime Rates and Punishment Levels," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 172(4), pages 727-754, December.
    18. Piero Stanig, 2015. "Regulation of Speech and Media Coverage of Corruption: An Empirical Analysis of the Mexican Press," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(1), pages 175-193, January.
    19. Laura Chioda, 2017. "Stop the Violence in Latin America," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 25920.
    20. Owen Ozier, 2018. "The Impact of Secondary Schooling in Kenya: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 53(1), pages 157-188.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:13:y:2021:i:4:p:47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.