IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/ijefaa/v13y2021i11p88.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19, Oil Price, Bitcoin, and US Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from ARDL Model

Author

Listed:
  • Hanan Naser

Abstract

The pandemic of coronavirus (COVID-19) creates fear and uncertainty causing extraordinary disruption to financial markets and global economy. Witnessing the fastest selloff in the American stock market in history with a plunge of more than 28% in S&P 500 has increased the volatility of global financial market to exceed the level observed during the financial crisis of 2008. On the other hand, Bitcoin value has shown considerable stability in the last couple of months peaking at $10,367.53 in the mid of February 2020. In this context, the aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 numbers on Bitcoin price taking into consideration number of controlling variables including WTI-oil price, S&P 500 index, financial market volatility, gold prices, and economic policy uncertainty of the US. To do so, ARDL estimation has been applied using daily data from December 31, 2019 till May 20, 2020. Key findings reveal that the daily reported cases of new infections have a marginal positive impact on Bitcoin price in the long term. However, the indirect impact associated with the fear of COVID-19 pandemic via financial market stress cannot be neglected. Bitcoin can also serve as a hedging tool against the economic policy uncertainty in the long term. In the short run, while the returns of economic policy uncertainty have no impact on Bitcoin price, the growth in the new cases of COVID-19 infection and returns of financial market volatility have more positive significant impact on Bitcoin returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanan Naser, 2021. "COVID-19, Oil Price, Bitcoin, and US Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from ARDL Model," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(11), pages 1-88, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:13:y:2021:i:11:p:88
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/download/0/0/46156/49193
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/0/46156
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    3. Klein, Tony & Pham Thu, Hien & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Bitcoin is not the New Gold – A comparison of volatility, correlation, and portfolio performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 105-116.
    4. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    6. Mnif, Emna & Jarboui, Anis & Mouakhar, Khaireddine, 2020. "How the cryptocurrency market has performed during COVID 19? A multifractal analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    7. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Lucey, Brian, 2019. "Is Bitcoin a better safe-haven investment than gold and commodities?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 322-330.
    8. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peipei, Wang & James, William, 2024. "Predicting oil price fluctuations: Integrating external indicators and advanced regression techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    2. Zhao, Jing, 2022. "Exploring the influence of the main factors on the crude oil price volatility: An analysis based on GARCH-MIDAS model with Lasso approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:7:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Chen, George S. & Yao, Yao & Malizard, Julien, 2017. "Does foreign direct investment crowd in or crowd out private domestic investment in China? The effect of entry mode," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 409-419.
    3. Ma, Xiuying & Yang, Zhihua & Xu, Xiangyun & Wang, Chengqi, 2018. "The impact of Chinese financial markets on commodity currency exchange rates," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 186-198.
    4. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Exactly what is the link between export and growth in Taiwan? new evidence from the Granger causality test," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(7), pages 1-10.
    5. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    6. Tan, Madeleine Sui-Lay, 2016. "Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
    7. Amarjit Singh Sidhu & Neha Verma, 2017. "Unveiling the Factors Affecting Profitability of Reinsurance Companies," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 42(3), pages 190-204, August.
    8. Abdul Rishad & Sanjeev Gupta & Akhil Sharma, 2021. "Official Intervention and Exchange Rate Determination: Evidence from India," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(3), pages 357-379, September.
    9. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2019. "Does money have a role in the inflation process? Evidence from Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 113-129, June.
    10. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Barnett, William A. & Ghosh, Taniya & Adil, Masudul Hasan, 2022. "Is money demand really unstable? Evidence from Divisia monetary aggregates," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 606-622.
    12. Tersoo Shimonkabir Shitile & Nuruddeen Usman, 2020. "Disaggregated Inflation and Asymmetric Oil Price Pass-Through in Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 255-264.
    13. Arvanitopoulos, T. & Agnolucci, P., 2020. "The long-term effect of renewable electricity on employment in the United Kingdom," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    14. Haoran Zhao & Sen Guo & Huiru Zhao, 2018. "Characterizing the Influences of Economic Development, Energy Consumption, Urbanization, Industrialization, and Vehicles Amount on PM 2.5 Concentrations of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-19, July.
    15. Heidari, Hassan & Katircioglu, Salih Turan & Saeidpour, Lesyan, 2013. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth: Are we ready to natural gas price liberalization in Iran?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 638-645.
    16. Jareño, Francisco & González, María de la O & Tolentino, Marta & Sierra, Karen, 2020. "Bitcoin and gold price returns: A quantile regression and NARDL analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    17. Hasan, Mohammad Maruf & Du, Fang, 2023. "The role of foreign trade and technology innovation on economic recovery in China: The mediating role of natural resources development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Richard Wamalwa Wanzala & Lawrence Ogechukwu Obokoh, 2024. "Savings and Sustainable Economic Growth Nexus: A South African Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-26, October.
    19. Muhammad, Anees & Ishfaq, Ahmed, 2011. "Industrial development, agricultural growth, urbanization and environmental Kuznets curve in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 33469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Desire Wade Atchike & Zhen-Yu Zhao & Geriletu Bao, 2020. "The Relationship between Electricity Consumption, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Case of Benin," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 507-515.
    21. Ben Jebli, Mehdi & Ben Youssef, Slim, 2017. "Investigating the interdependence between non-hydroelectric renewable energy, agricultural value added, and arable land use in Argentina," MPRA Paper 77513, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:13:y:2021:i:11:p:88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.