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Sistema de pensiones y profundidad financiera: Evidencia empírica de cointegración para el caso Boliviano

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  • Pamela Córdova Olivera

    (Centro de Investigaciones Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad Privada Boliviana)

Abstract

El objetivo de este artículo es evaluar empíricamente la naturaleza de la relación entre el Sistema de Pensiones basado en cuentas de capitalización individual y la Profundidad Financiera en Bolivia. Para este propósito, se utilizan el contraste de cointegración de Engle- Granger y de Johansen dentro de un marco de corrección de errores, esto con el fin de poder confirmar la existencia de una relación estable de largo plazo entre las variables. En general, los resultados apoyan la opinión de que, en efecto, el Sistema de Pensiones es un factor causal de Profundidad Financiera y que tiene efectos duraderos a largo plazo. Por lo tanto, las políticas gubernamentales diseñadas para fortalecer el Sistema de Pensiones deben ser persistentes y sostenibles con el fin de promover, paralelamente al desarrollo social e inclusivo del Sistema de Seguridad Social, el desarrollo de los Mercados de Capitales. Para el análisis se plantea un modelo econométrico de Profundidad Financiera con dos especificaciones alternativas: i) la primera excluye títulos públicos y ii) la segunda incluye títulos públicos

Suggested Citation

  • Pamela Córdova Olivera, 2014. "Sistema de pensiones y profundidad financiera: Evidencia empírica de cointegración para el caso Boliviano," Investigación & Desarrollo, Universidad Privada Boliviana, vol. 1(1), pages 22-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:iad:wpaper:0314
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eduardo Walker & Fernando Lefort, 2002. "Pension Reform And Capital Markets: Are There Any (Hard) Links?," Abante, Escuela de Administracion. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 5(2), pages 77-149.
    2. Catalan, Mario & Impavido, Gregorio & Musalem, Alberto R., 2000. "Contractual savings or stock market development - Which leads?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2421, The World Bank.
    3. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    4. Solange Berstein & Rómulo Chumacero, 2005. "Cuantificación de los Costos de los Limites de Inversión para los Fondos de Pensiones Chilenos," Working Papers 3, Superintendencia de Pensiones, revised Apr 2005.
    5. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    6. Walker, Eduardo*Lefort, Fernando, 2002. "Pension reform and capital markets : are there any (hard) links?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 24082, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Profundidad Financiera; Sistema de Pensiones; Cointegración;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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