IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hrs/journl/vxiiiy2021i2p291-298.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Model For The Job Demand Forecasting In The Arctic Zone Of The Russian Federation Based On Time Series

Author

Listed:
  • Zhanna PETUKHOVA

    (Professor, Department of Economics, Management and Organization of Production, Norilsk State Industrial Institute)

  • Mikhail PETUKHOV

    (Associate Professor, Department of Information Systems and Technologies, Norilsk State Industrial Institute)

  • Igor BELYAEV

    (Senior Lecturer, Department of Information Systems and Technologies, Norilsk State Industrial Institute)

  • Lyudmila BODRYAKOVA

    (Associate Professor, Department of Information Systems and Technologies, Norilsk State Industrial Institute)

Abstract

The Russian Federation is the largest country in the world, whose territory includes the Arctic regions. The area of the land territories of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) is approximately 3.700,000 km2. The population of the Arctic Zone of Russia is approximately 7 million people, which is equal to 5% of the population of the entire Russian Federation. The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyse regression models for predicting the time series of the number of jobs in the labour market of the Russian Federation, to select an adequate model characterised by a minimum average relative error and a maximum lead time, or to select several adequate models for different forecasting periods: short-term, medium-term and long-term. The study examines the possibilities of predicting the situation in the labour market of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation, the demand for specialists in various industries using regression models for forecasting a time series. The simulation was performed using the Statistica software. As a result of the conducted studies, adequate forecasting models were obtained in the time period from 01.01.2020 to 01.01.2021, taking into account the epidemiological situation in the country. Thus, the best model with the smallest error was determined.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhanna PETUKHOVA & Mikhail PETUKHOV & Igor BELYAEV & Lyudmila BODRYAKOVA, 2021. "A Model For The Job Demand Forecasting In The Arctic Zone Of The Russian Federation Based On Time Series," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 291-298, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:hrs:journl:v:xiii:y:2021:i:2:p:291-298
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rsijournal.eu/ARTICLES/December_2021/20.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cristina LINCARU & Speranta PÃŽRCIOG & Draga Atanasiu, 2016. "A Model Of A System Of Monitoring And Alert System Of The Risk Of Unemployment €“ Romanian Case," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(3), pages 125-145, December.
    2. Cristina LINCARU & Speranta PÎRCIOG & Draga Atanasiu, 2016. "A Model Of A System Of Monitoring And Alert System Of The Risk Of Unemployment – Romanian Case," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(3), pages 125-145, December.
    3. Vyacheslav L. BABURIN & Vladimir S. TIKUNOV & Svetlana V. BADINA & Olga Yu. CHERESHNIA, 2018. "The Assessment Of Socio-Economic Potential Density Of Arctic Territories In Russia," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 37-44, July.
    4. Timo Mitze & Nino Javakhishvili‐Larsen, 2020. "Graduate Migration and Early‐career Labor Market Outcomes: Do Education Programs and Qualification Levels Matter?," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 34(4), pages 477-503, December.
    5. repec:hrs:journl::y:2012:v:4:i:3:p:91-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Anna MALTSEVA & Igor VESELOV & Evgeny BUKHVALD, 2019. "Estimation Of Region'S Intellectual Capital Based On The System Of Indicators Case Of The Russian Federation," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 147-157, June.
    7. Dmitry NAPOLSKIKH & Tatyana V. YALYALIEVA, 2019. "Modeling Of Regional Economic Development Based On Innovative Clusters," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 73-81, June.
    8. Dimitris KALLIORAS & Maria TSIAPA & Spyridon ZAPANTIS, 2016. "Spatial Variations Of Employment Change In Greece Over The Early-Crisis Period (2008-2011)," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 61-78, June.
    9. Elena Nikolaevna ZAKHAROVA & Elena Evgenyevna KARDAVA & Rita Rafaelovna AVANESOVA & Elena Petrovna AVRAMENKO, 2016. "Management Of The Economic Capacity Of The Region On The Basis Of Foresight (On The Example Of Adygea, Russia)," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 45-53, June.
    10. Taras VASYLTSIV & Olha MULSKA & Volodymyr PANCHENKO & Maryana KOHUT & Volodymyr ZAYCHENKO & Olha LEVYTSKA, 2021. "Technologization Processes And Social And Economic Growth: Modeling The Impact And Priorities For Strengthening The Technological Competitiveness Of The Economy," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 117-134, June.
    11. Anne Villamil & Xiaobing Wang & Yuxiang Zou, 2020. "Growth and development with dual labor markets," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(6), pages 801-826, December.
    12. Sergey KOZHEVNIKOV, 2019. "Agglomeration Processes On The Russian European North: Vologda Region Experience," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 85-94, June.
    13. Elena GUBANOVA & Nikolai VOROSHILOV, 2019. "Assessment And Mechanism Of Regulating Inter-Regional Socio-Economic Differentiation (Case Study Of The Russian Federation)," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(3), pages 55-68, December.
    14. Svetlana RASTVORTSEVA, 2017. "Agglomeration Economics In Regions: The Case In The Russian Industry," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 45-54, December.
    15. Galina Yakovlevna BELYAKOVA & Gennadiy Pavlovich BELYAKOV & Ekaterina Vladimirovna SUMINA & Artem Alexandrovich BADYUKOV, 2017. "Project-Based Approach To Formation Of Innovative Region Receptivity," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 119-130, December.
    16. Ramesh CHANDRA DAS & Kamal RAY, 2019. "Long Run Relationships And Short Run Dynamics Among Unemployment And Demand Components: A Study On Sri Lanka, India And Bangladesh," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 107-120, June.
    17. Sooriyakumar Krishnapillai & Henry Kinnucan, 2020. "Impact Of Auto Industry And Its Spatial Spillover Effect On Alabama'S Economic Growth And Development," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 191-201, June.
    18. Kalandar ABDURAKHMANOV & Nodira ZOKIROVA, 2019. "Economic Trends Of The Youth Labor Market In Uzbekistan," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 33-44, June.
    19. Evangelos Asprogerakas,, 2012. "In Search Of The Policy Applied And Spatial Correlations Of Electronic Government Applications In Greece," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(3), pages 91-103, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nadezda Vasilievna SEDOVA & Lidia Sergeevna ARKHIPOVA & Darya Mikhailovna MELNIKOVA & Irina Fedorovna ALESHINA, 2022. "Digitalization Of Economy And Living Standards Of Population In Russian Regions," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 47-65, June.
    2. Mariya PECHENSKAYA-POLISHCHUK, 2021. "Tools And Testing Of The Assessment Of Budget Capacity Of The Municipal Level (Case Study Of The Russian Federation)," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 43-52, June.
    3. Dinara B. KALYBEKOVA & Galiya N. SANSYZBAYEVA & Madina O. KOISHYBAEVA & Tolkyn OSPANBEK & Aitolkyn B. KULMAGANBETOVA, 2021. "Digital Economy Within The Eurasian Economic Union: Current State And Development Prospects," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 31-48, June.
    4. Toleu PANIYAZ & Kargash ZHANPEIISSOVA & Oralbay KABUL & Aigul AMANTAYEVA, 2021. "Strategic Priorities Of The National Policy Of The Republic Of Kazakhstan On The Development Of Regions," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 83-92, June.
    5. Lidia S. ARKHIPOVA, 2020. "Territorial Differentiation Of Labor As A Factor In The Sustainability Of Regional Economies," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 165-178, June.
    6. Vita HAVRYLIUK & Andrii HROMYK & Ivan SEMENETS & Tetiana PYLYPIUK & Rostislav MOTSYK & Anna KOSTYAKOVA, 2021. "Digitalization Of Territorial And Economic Systems At The Regional Level," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 209-226, June.
    7. Raisa M. IVANOVA & Olga V. SKROBOTOVA & Nadezhda K. MARTYNENKO & Olga S. TAMER & Anatoly V. KOZLOV, 2021. "Environmental Cooperation As A Way Of Developing Eco-Tourism In The Arctic Region," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 69-79, June.
    8. Inna MANAEVA & Anna TKACHEVA & Elena CHENTSOVA & Elena ILYICHEVA, 2021. "Assessment Of The Interconnectedness Of Cities In The Russian Far East," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 123-133, June.
    9. Ramesh Chandra Das, 2021. "Sectoral Compositions of Output and Employment in India: Are We Moving Towards Jobless, Job-loss or Job-enabled Growth?," Review of Market Integration, India Development Foundation, vol. 13(2-3), pages 98-123, December.
    10. Dimitrios TSIOTAS & Nikolaos AXELIS & Serafeim POLYZOS, 2022. "Detecting City-Dipoles In Greece Based On Intercity Commuting," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 11-30, June.
    11. Majid FESHARI & Hedayat HOSSEINZADEH, 2018. "The Relationship Between Health Care And Tourism Demand In Iranian Economy," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 173-180, July.
    12. Kunytska-Iliash, Marta, 2023. "Assessment of the financial security of agriculture in Ukraine," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 9(1), March.
    13. Gajanan BHARAT HALDANKAR & Santosh PATKAR, 2024. "Regional Dynamics And State-Level Performance In India'S Indirect Tax Scenario: Exploring Goods And Services Tax (Gst) Revenue Journey," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 39-53, June.
    14. Daniela- Luminița CONSTANTIN & Corina- Cristiana NASTACĂ & Emilia GEAMBASU, 2021. "Population Accessibility To Rail Services. Insights Through The Lens Of Territorial Cohesion," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 81-98, June.
    15. Yangyang Shen & Shi Li & Xiaobing Wang, 2021. "Impacts of Two Tax Reforms on Inequality and Welfare in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(3), pages 104-134, May.
    16. KYDROS Dimitrios & FILENTA Pagona, 2022. "Literature Review of Economic and Regional Development through Quantitative Methods and Social Network Analysis," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Bucharest Economic Academy, issue 01, March.
    17. Nanak Kakwani & Xiaobing Wang & Ning Xue & Peng Zhan, 2022. "Growth and Common Prosperity in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(1), pages 28-57, January.
    18. Magaly Faride Herrera Giraldo & Carlos Giovanni González Espitia, 2022. "Understanding the Spatial Relationship Between the Informal Labor Market and Violent Crime in Cali, Colombia," Icesi Economics Working Papers 20344, Universidad Icesi.
    19. Ramesh CHANDRA DAS & Kamal RAY, 2019. "Long Run Relationships And Short Run Dynamics Among Unemployment And Demand Components: A Study On Sri Lanka, India And Bangladesh," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 107-120, June.
    20. Peter Rangazas & Xiaobing Wang & Yuxiang Zou, 2022. "China's efficient urban bias," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 223-253, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labour market; regression models; education; autocorrelation function; autoregression.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hrs:journl:v:xiii:y:2021:i:2:p:291-298. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dimitrios K. Kouzas (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.