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Economic Downturns, Endogenous Government Policy and Welfare Caseloads

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Ayala Cañón

    (Universidad Rey Juan Carlos)

  • Ángela Triguero Cano

    (Universidad Castilla-La Mancha)

Abstract

Governments can soften the impact of the business cycle on welfare spending. Depending on the political costs and the extent of unemployment, they might choose between a decrease in the proportion of accepted applications, a decrease in the level of benefits, or some combination of the two. This paper is motivated by this concern, weaving together the intensive literature on the determinants of welfare caseloads and the fundamentals of public choice theory applied to the design of welfare programs. The paper is based on data from the minimum income program of Catalonia’s government (PIRMI). We use autoregressive distributed lag models to find that the generosity of the program is clearly predictive of the receipt of benefits even in contexts of high and growing unemployment rates. We also find a fairly strong correlation between unemployment growth and the proportion of rejected applications and a trade-off between the level of benefits and rejections.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Ayala Cañón & Ángela Triguero Cano, 2017. "Economic Downturns, Endogenous Government Policy and Welfare Caseloads," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 220(1), pages 107-136, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2017:v:220:i:1:p:107-136
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    4. Luis Ayala & Olga Cantó & Juan G. Rodríguez, 2011. "Poverty and the business cycle: The role of the intra-household distribution of unemployment," Working Papers 222, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    5. Luis Ayala & César Pérez, 2005. "Macroeconomic conditions, institutional factors and demographic structure: What causes welfare caseloads?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(3), pages 563-581, September.
    6. Katherine Baicker, 2005. "Extensive or Intensive Generosity? The Price and Income Effects of Federal Grants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 371-384, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luis Ayala & Mariya Melnychuk, 2024. "Differential Effects of Expansions and Recessions on Social Assistance Duration: The Case of Regional Minimum Income Programmes in Spain," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 248(1), pages 115-141, March.
    2. Faisal Mehmood & Muhammad Atique & Wang Bing & Hameed Khan & Henna Henna, 2021. "Infrastructure and sectoral FDI in China: an empirical analysis," Post-Print hal-03583884, HAL.
    3. Luis Ayala & Elena Bárcena-Martín, 2016. "A unified approach for measuring welfare protection under a decentralized framework," Working Papers 405, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    4. Luis Ayala & Ana Herrero & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, 2019. "Welfare Benefits in Highly Decentralized Fiscal Systems: Evidence on Interterritorial Mimicking," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1905, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    5. Faisal Mehmood & Muhammad Atique & Wang Bing & Hameed Khan & Henna Henna, 2021. "Infrastructure and sectoral FDI in China: an empirical analysis," Insights into Regional Development, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 3(2), pages 160-175, June.
    6. María José Solíx-Baltodano & Cori Vilella & José Manuel Giménez-Gómez, 2019. "The Catalan Health Budget: A Conflicting Claims Approach," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 228(1), pages 35-54, March.
    7. Luis Ayala & José María Arranz & Carlos García‐Serrano & Lucía Martínez‐Virto, 2021. "The effectiveness of minimum income benefits in poverty reduction in Spain," International Journal of Social Welfare, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 152-169, April.
    8. Luis Ayala & Elena Bárcena-Martín, 2018. "A social welfare approach for measuring welfare protection," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 16(1), pages 41-59, March.
    9. Masayoshi Hayashi, 2017. "Do Central Grants Affect Welfare Caseloads? Evidence from Public Assistance in Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1064, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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