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“The Ghosts I Called I Can't Get Rid of Now”: The Keynes-Tinbergen-Friedman-Phillips Critique of Keynesian Macroeconometrics

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  • Robert Leeson

Abstract

This chapter offers a fresh perspective on the much publicized dispute between those followers of Keynes who presented econometric evidence in favour of a Phillips curve trade-off, and those monetarists who presented counter econometric evidence. Contrary to common perceptions, the collapse of the Keynesian Phillips curve was a vindication of a common critique of macroeconometric practices, which was jointly authored by John Maynard Keynes, Jan Tinbergen, Milton Friedman and A. W. H. ‘Bill’ Phillips. This analysis is informed by the usual sources, plus two sources which had been thought to be no longer in existence (Phillips’s private papers and the London School of Economics (LSE) Methodology, Measurement and Testing (M2T) Staff Seminar records), plus two essays by Keynes (1938a, 1938b) which have been overlooked in this context.
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Suggested Citation

  • Robert Leeson, 1998. "“The Ghosts I Called I Can't Get Rid of Now”: The Keynes-Tinbergen-Friedman-Phillips Critique of Keynesian Macroeconometrics," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 51-94, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:hop:hopeec:v:30:y:1998:i:1:p:51-94
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Leeson, 2000. "Inflation, Disinflation and the Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Dynamic Framework for Policy Analysis," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & Sona Shrestha (ed.),The Australian Economy in the 1990s, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Garrone Giovanna & Marchionatti Roberto, 2007. "Keynes, statistics and econometrics," CESMEP Working Papers 200703, University of Turin.
    3. Elke Muchlinski, 2005. "The Lucas Critique and Keynes Response.Considering the History of Macroeconomics," Macroeconomics 0503019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Garrone Giovanna & Marchionatti Roberto, 2007. "The appropriate style of economic discourse. Keynes on Economics and Econometrics," CESMEP Working Papers 200702, University of Turin.

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