Analysis and Simulation of Lateral Collision Risk under Paired Approach

The paired approach can improve the efficiency of closely spaced parallel runways. Calculating the probability and frequency of horizontal overlap is an indispensable step when evaluating the horizontal collision risk of the paired approach. As the generation of horizontal overlap probability is closely related to horizontal position error, we propose a calculation method of horizontal overlap probability based on position error from the perspective of pilot operation. First, according to the principle of flight mechanics, the attitude adjustment model is established for the horizontal direction of the approach process, and the pilot’s operation model for various position errors is based on the concept of the stochastic process. This attitude adjustment model can replicates the process of the pilot operating the steering column to change the aircraft’s attitude. When combined with the pilot’s operation model, it is possible to simulate the position errors generated during the approach process. Building on this, the horizontal overlapping conditions of two aircraft are analyzed to simulate the horizontal overlap process in the paired approach. The duration and instances of overlap counted and the ratio between these results and the total running time give the overlap probability and frequency. Multiple simulations in MATLAB reveal that higher pilot operating accuracy shortens the time for the aircraft to align with the course, whereas lower accuracy leads to unstable horizontal position errors. Furthermore, the horizontal overlap in paired approaches primarily occurs at the beginning of the procedure, and enhancing the pilot’s operating accuracy does not significantly affect the probability and frequency of horizontal overlap.