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Risk Analysis for Cascade Reservoirs Collapse Based on Bayesian Networks under the Combined Action of Flood and Landslide Surge

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  • Ping Li
  • Chuan Liang

Abstract

A method based on a Bayesian network (BN) combined with stochastic Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is used in this research to calculate the probability and analyze the risk of a single reservoir dam overtopping and two reservoirs collapsing under the combined action of flood and landslide surge. Two adjacent cascade reservoirs on the Dadu River are selected for risk calculation and analysis. The results show that the conditional probability of a dam overtopping due to flooding in a single reservoir is relatively small; the conditional probability of a dam overtopping due to landslide surge in a single reservoir is relatively large; a combination of flooding and landslide surge greatly increases the risk of the dam overtopping. The conditional probability that the dam in (downstream) Changheba reservoir overtops as a result of a dam-break flood from (upstream) Houziyan reservoir is greater than 0.8 when the water in Changheba reservoir is at its normal level. Under the combined action of flooding and landslide surges, the joint probability that the two cascade reservoirs collapse in a variety of typical situations is very small.

Suggested Citation

  • Ping Li & Chuan Liang, 2016. "Risk Analysis for Cascade Reservoirs Collapse Based on Bayesian Networks under the Combined Action of Flood and Landslide Surge," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2016, pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:2903935
    DOI: 10.1155/2016/2903935
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Te & Li, Zongkun & Ge, Wei & Zhang, Hua & Zhang, Yadong & Sun, Heqiang & Jiao, Yutie, 2023. "Risk consequence assessment of dam breach in cascade reservoirs considering risk transmission and superposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    2. Ye Zheng & Yazhou Xie & Xuejiao Long, 2021. "A comprehensive review of Bayesian statistics in natural hazards engineering," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 63-91, August.
    3. El-Awady, Ahmed & Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy, 2021. "Integration of simulation and Markov Chains to support Bayesian Networks for probabilistic failure analysis of complex systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    4. Te Wang & Zongkun Li & Wei Ge & Yadong Zhang & Yutie Jiao & Hua Zhang & Heqiang Sun & Pieter Gelder, 2023. "Risk assessment methods of cascade reservoir dams: a review and reflection," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(2), pages 1601-1622, January.

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