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SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting

Author

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  • Herui Cui
  • Pengbang Wei
  • Yupei Mu
  • Xu Peng

Abstract

Seasonal component has been a key factor in time series modeling for medium-term electric load forecasting. In this paper, a seasonal-ARIMA model is developed, but the parameters of the SAR and the SMA turn out to be quite nonsignificant in most cases during the model order selection. To address this issue, the hybrid time series model based on the HP filter is utilized to extract the spectrum sequences with different frequencies and analyze interactions among various factors. Finally, an integrative forecast is made for the electricity consumption from January to November in 2014. The empirical results demonstrate that the method with HP filter could reduce the relative error caused by the interaction between the trend component and the seasonal component.

Suggested Citation

  • Herui Cui & Pengbang Wei & Yupei Mu & Xu Peng, 2016. "SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2016, pages 1-9, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnddns:9649682
    DOI: 10.1155/2016/9649682
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhou, Zhihua & Tang, Huajie & Wang, Chendong & Lu, Shilei & Han, Zhao & Zhang, Ji & Sheng, Ying, 2020. "Identification heat user behavior for improving the accuracy of heating load prediction model based on wireless on-off control system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    2. Yuan, Jianjuan & Wang, Chendong & Zhou, Zhihua, 2019. "Study on refined control and prediction model of district heating station based on support vector machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    3. Yuan, Jianjuan & Huang, Ke & Han, Zhao & Wang, Chendong & Lu, Shilei & Zhou, Zhihua, 2022. "Evaluation of the operation data for improving the prediction accuracy of heating parameters in heating substation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    4. Wang, Yanmin & Li, Zhiwei & Liu, Junjie & Pei, Mingzhe & Zhao, Yan & Lu, Xuan, 2023. "Data-driven analysis and prediction of indoor characteristic temperature in district heating systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    5. Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhou, Zhihua & Huang, Ke & Han, Zhao & Wang, Chendong & Lu, Shilei, 2021. "Analysis and evaluation of the operation data for achieving an on-demand heating consumption prediction model of district heating substation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

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