IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hin/complx/9527218.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A New Decision Method for Public Opinion Crisis with the Intervention of Risk Perception of the Public

Author

Listed:
  • Zhiying Wang
  • Xiaodi Liu
  • Shitao Zhang

Abstract

Decision-making for selecting response plans problem (SRPP) has been widely concerning to scholars. However, most of the existing studies on this problem are focused on public emergencies, and little attention has been paid to the decision-makers’ urgent need for solving the SRPP in response to public opinion crisis (POC) that may lead to panic buying of materials derived from public emergencies. POC has obvious characteristics of group behaviors that directly resulted from panics and psychological appeals of the public. Therefore, for solving the SRPP in POC, it is necessary to consider the deep-seated cause that result in panics and psychological appeals of the public, i.e., risk perception of the public (RPP). Firstly, the multicase study is employed to describe the SRPP of POC, and thus eight typical cases are chosen to analyze POC and its relevant response measures. Then, the RPP is described with prospect theory through considering the behavioral characteristics and critical sense of the public, the response measures of decision-makers, and the importance and ambiguity of POC. Further, considering the behavioral characteristics of decision-makers and the impact of alternative response plans on the evolution of POC scenarios, a new decision method for solving the SRPP with the intervention of the RPP is proposed by using cumulative prospect theory and a manner of comparing alternatives for each other. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the potential application and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhiying Wang & Xiaodi Liu & Shitao Zhang, 2019. "A New Decision Method for Public Opinion Crisis with the Intervention of Risk Perception of the Public," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:complx:9527218
    DOI: 10.1155/2019/9527218
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/8503/2019/9527218.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/8503/2019/9527218.xml
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1155/2019/9527218?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Han Bleichrodt & Ulrich Schmidt & Horst Zank, 2009. "Additive Utility in Prospect Theory," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 863-873, May.
    2. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    3. Xiaodi Liu & Zengwen Wang & Shitao Zhang, 2018. "A New Methodology for Hesitant Fuzzy Emergency Decision Making with Unknown Weight Information," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-12, November.
    4. Mahesh Nagarajan & Steven Shechter, 2014. "Prospect Theory and the Newsvendor Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 1057-1062, April.
    5. Rachaniotis, Nikolaos P. & Dasaklis, Tom K. & Pappis, Costas P., 2012. "A deterministic resource scheduling model in epidemic control: A case study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 225-231.
    6. Fan, Kangqi & Pedrycz, Witold, 2015. "Emergence and spread of extremist opinions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 87-97.
    7. Tien Ming Lee & Ezra M. Markowitz & Peter D. Howe & Chia-Ying Ko & Anthony A. Leiserowitz, 2015. "Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the world," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(11), pages 1014-1020, November.
    8. Wex, Felix & Schryen, Guido & Feuerriegel, Stefan & Neumann, Dirk, 2014. "Emergency response in natural disaster management: Allocation and scheduling of rescue units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 697-708.
    9. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Argyris, Nikolaos & French, Simon, 2017. "Nuclear emergency decision support: A behavioural OR perspective," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(1), pages 180-193.
    11. Xiaoyang Long & Javad Nasiry, 2015. "Prospect Theory Explains Newsvendor Behavior: The Role of Reference Points," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(12), pages 3009-3012, December.
    12. Frondel, Manuel & Simora, Michael & Sommer, Stephan, 2017. "Risk Perception of Climate Change: Empirical Evidence for Germany," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 173-183.
    13. Akgün, İbrahim & Gümüşbuğa, Ferhat & Tansel, Barbaros, 2015. "Risk based facility location by using fault tree analysis in disaster management," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 168-179.
    14. Gisela Wachinger & Ortwin Renn & Chloe Begg & Christian Kuhlicke, 2013. "The Risk Perception Paradox—Implications for Governance and Communication of Natural Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(6), pages 1049-1065, June.
    15. Geldermann, Jutta & Bertsch, Valentin & Treitz, Martin & French, Simon & Papamichail, Konstantinia N. & Hämäläinen, Raimo P., 2009. "Multi-criteria decision support and evaluation of strategies for nuclear remediation management," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 238-251, February.
    16. Mohammed Abdellaoui & Han Bleichrodt & Corina Paraschiv, 2007. "Loss Aversion Under Prospect Theory: A Parameter-Free Measurement," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(10), pages 1659-1674, October.
    17. Sushil Gupta & Martin K. Starr & Reza Zanjirani Farahani & Niki Matinrad, 2016. "Disaster Management from a POM Perspective: Mapping a New Domain," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 25(10), pages 1611-1637, October.
    18. Yianis Sarafidis, 2007. "What Have you Done for me Lately? Release of Information and Strategic Manipulation of Memories," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(518), pages 307-326, March.
    19. Laura N. Rickard, 2014. "Perception of Risk and the Attribution of Responsibility for Accidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(3), pages 514-528, March.
    20. Campos-Vazquez, Raymundo M. & Cuilty, Emilio, 2014. "The role of emotions on risk aversion: A Prospect Theory experiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-9.
    21. He, Fei & Zhuang, Jun, 2016. "Balancing pre-disaster preparedness and post-disaster relief," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 246-256.
    22. Ebrahim Nejad, Alireza & Niroomand, Iman & Kuzgunkaya, Onur, 2014. "Responsive contingency planning in supply risk management by considering congestion effects," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 19-35.
    23. Michel Setbon & Jocelyn Raude & Claude Fischler & Antoine Flahault, 2005. "Risk Perception of the “Mad Cow Disease” in France: Determinants and Consequences," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(4), pages 813-826, August.
    24. Chandra, S. & Aggarwal, A., 2015. "On solving matrix games with pay-offs of triangular fuzzy numbers: Certain observations and generalizations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(2), pages 575-581.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiaojiao Qiao & Dan Shi, 2019. "Risk Analysis of Emergency Based on Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-10, November.
    2. Kum Fai Yuen & Xueqin Wang & Fei Ma & Kevin X. Li, 2020. "The Psychological Causes of Panic Buying Following a Health Crisis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-14, May.
    3. Shan Gao & Ye Zhang & Wenhui Liu, 2021. "How Does Risk-Information Communication Affect the Rebound of Online Public Opinion of Public Emergencies in China?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-14, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bhavani Shanker Uppari & Sameer Hasija, 2019. "Modeling Newsvendor Behavior: A Prospect Theory Approach," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 481-500, July.
    2. Attema, Arthur E. & Brouwer, Werner B.F. & l’Haridon, Olivier & Pinto, Jose Luis, 2016. "An elicitation of utility for quality of life under prospect theory," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 121-134.
    3. Xiaojiao Qiao & Dan Shi, 2019. "Risk Analysis of Emergency Based on Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-10, November.
    4. Xin Yao & Hai-xiang Guo & Jian Zhu & Yong Shi, 2022. "Dynamic selection of emergency plans of geological disaster based on case-based reasoning and prospect theory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 2249-2275, February.
    5. Andrea C. Hupman & Jay Simon, 2023. "The Legacy of Peter Fishburn: Foundational Work and Lasting Impact," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Caballero, William N. & Lunday, Brian J., 2019. "Influence modeling: Mathematical programming representations of persuasion under either risk or uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 266-282.
    7. Géraldine Bocquého & Julien Jacob & Marielle Brunette, 2023. "Prospect theory in multiple price list experiments: further insights on behaviour in the loss domain," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 94(4), pages 593-636, May.
    8. Wei, Ying & Xiong, Sijia & Li, Feng, 2019. "Ordering bias with two reference profits: Exogenous benchmark and minimum requirement," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 229-250.
    9. Géraldine Bocquého & Julien Jacob & Marielle Brunette, 2020. "Prospect theory in experiments : behaviour in loss domain and framing effects," Working Papers hal-02987294, HAL.
    10. Botzen, W.J.W. & van den Bergh, J.C.J.M., 2012. "Risk attitudes to low-probability climate change risks: WTP for flood insurance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 151-166.
    11. Stefan Trautmann & Peter P. Wakker, 2018. "Making the Anscombe-Aumann approach to ambiguity suitable for descriptive applications," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 83-116, February.
    12. Vipin, B. & Amit, R.K., 2019. "Describing decision bias in the newsvendor problem: A prospect theory model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 132-141.
    13. Liu, Hui-hui & Song, Yao-yao & Yang, Guo-liang, 2019. "Cross-efficiency evaluation in data envelopment analysis based on prospect theory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(1), pages 364-375.
    14. Qingwei Wang & Meimei Zheng & Wei Weng, 2023. "Sourcing decisions with loss aversion under yield and demand randomness," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(2), pages 661-710, June.
    15. Wu, Meng & Bai, Tian & Zhu, Stuart X., 2018. "A loss averse competitive newsvendor problem with anchoring," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 99-111.
    16. repec:cup:judgdm:v:12:y:2017:i:1:p:81-89 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Philip Bromiley, 2009. "A Prospect Theory Model of Resource Allocation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 124-138, September.
    18. Luís Santos-Pinto & Adrian Bruhin & José Mata & Thomas Åstebro, 2015. "Detecting heterogeneous risk attitudes with mixed gambles," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 79(4), pages 573-600, December.
    19. Ulrich Schmidt & Horst Zank, 2008. "Risk Aversion in Cumulative Prospect Theory," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 208-216, January.
    20. Jonathan Chapman & Erik Snowberg & Stephanie Wang & Colin Camerer, 2018. "Loss Attitudes in the U.S. Population: Evidence from Dynamically Optimized Sequential Experimentation (DOSE)," NBER Working Papers 25072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Julius Pahlke & Sebastian Strasser & Ferdinand Vieider, 2015. "Responsibility effects in decision making under risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 125-146, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hin:complx:9527218. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mohamed Abdelhakeem (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.hindawi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.