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Sparse Causality Network Retrieval from Short Time Series

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  • Tomaso Aste
  • T. Di Matteo

Abstract

We investigate how efficiently a known underlying sparse causality structure of a simulated multivariate linear process can be retrieved from the analysis of time series of short lengths. Causality is quantified from conditional transfer entropy and the network is constructed by retaining only the statistically validated contributions. We compare results from three methodologies: two commonly used regularization methods, Glasso and ridge, and a newly introduced technique, LoGo, based on the combination of information filtering network and graphical modelling. For these three methodologies we explore the regions of time series lengths and model-parameters where a significant fraction of true causality links is retrieved. We conclude that when time series are short, with their lengths shorter than the number of variables, sparse models are better suited to uncover true causality links with LoGo retrieving the true causality network more accurately than Glasso and ridge.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomaso Aste & T. Di Matteo, 2017. "Sparse Causality Network Retrieval from Short Time Series," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-13, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:complx:4518429
    DOI: 10.1155/2017/4518429
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Wand & Oliver Kamps & Hiroshi Iyetomi, 2024. "Causal Hierarchy in the Financial Market Network -- Uncovered by the Helmholtz-Hodge-Kodaira Decomposition," Papers 2408.12839, arXiv.org.
    2. Pier Francesco Procacci & Tomaso Aste, 2021. "Portfolio Optimization with Sparse Multivariate Modelling," Papers 2103.15232, arXiv.org.
    3. Yuanrong Wang & Tomaso Aste, 2021. "Dynamic Portfolio Optimization with Inverse Covariance Clustering," Papers 2112.15499, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    4. Wang, Yuanrong & Aste, Tomaso, 2023. "Dynamic portfolio optimization with inverse covariance clustering," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117701, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Yuanrong Wang & Tomaso Aste, 2022. "Sparsification and Filtering for Spatial-temporal GNN in Multivariate Time-series," Papers 2203.03991, arXiv.org.
    6. Nava, Noemi & Di Matteo, T. & Aste, Tomaso, 2018. "Dynamic correlations at different time-scales with empirical mode decomposition," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 502(C), pages 534-544.
    7. Danial Saef & Yuanrong Wang & Tomaso Aste, 2022. "Regime-based Implied Stochastic Volatility Model for Crypto Option Pricing," Papers 2208.12614, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    8. Yuanrong Wang & Antonio Briola & Tomaso Aste, 2023. "Topological Portfolio Selection and Optimization," Papers 2310.14881, arXiv.org.
    9. Lu, Ya-Nan & Li, Sai-Ping & Zhong, Li-Xin & Jiang, Xiong-Fei & Ren, Fei, 2018. "A clustering-based portfolio strategy incorporating momentum effect and market trend prediction," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-15.
    10. Upadhyay, Shashankaditya & Mukherjee, Indranil & Panigrahi, Prasanta K., 2023. "Inner composition alignment networks reveal financial impacts of COVID-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 609(C).

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