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Diversity in Foresight: A Practice of Selection of Innovation Ideas

Author

Listed:
  • Ville Brummer

    (Systems Analysis Laboratory, Helsinki University of Technology (Finland))

  • Totti Konnola

    (Joint Research Centre — Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (Spain))

  • Ahti Salo

    (Systems Analysis Laboratory, Helsinki University of Technology (Finland))

Abstract

The paper investigates an experience of accounting a range of diverse viewpoints when dealing with major objectives of Foresight — priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. The relevant practice has a special meaning in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. The basic method in this case is the Scanning of Weak Signals. The authors propose to increase the performance of this tool by focusing on promising innovative ideas that will provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas it is recommended to use a collaborative foresight method — Robust Portfolio Model (RPM) Screening. It envisages several phases, including generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovative ideas.The paper presents the experience of Finland where this method was employed to enhance the operation of the ongoing Foresight Forum. Encouraging results from this project suggest that RPM Screening can be highly effective in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas. Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Suggested Citation

  • Ville Brummer & Totti Konnola & Ahti Salo, 2010. "Diversity in Foresight: A Practice of Selection of Innovation Ideas," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 4(4), pages 56-68.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:4:y:2010:i:4:p:56-68
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    File URL: http://foresight-journal.hse.ru/data/2011/11/28/1271013948/56-68.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anatoliy Alabugin & Konstantin Osintsev & Sergei Aliukov & Zlata Almetova & Yaroslav Bolkov, 2023. "Mathematical Foundations for Modeling a Zero-Carbon Electric Power System in Terms of Sustainability," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-24, May.
    2. Rinat Zhanbayev & Saule Sagintayeva & Abildina Ainur & Anton Nazarov, 2020. "The Use of the Foresight Methods in Developing an Algorithm for Conducting Qualitative Examination of the Research Activities Results on the Example of the Republic of Kazakhstan," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-19, November.
    3. Anatoliy Alabugin & Sergei Aliukov & Tatyana Khudyakova, 2022. "Review of Models for and Socioeconomic Approaches to the Formation of Foresight Control Mechanisms: A Genesis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    foresight; portfolio modeling; innovation processes; multi-criteria decision analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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