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The Ethnic Politics of Coup Avoidance: Evidence from Zambia and Uganda

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  • Stefan Lindemann

Abstract

Though military interventions seem endemic in sub-Saharan Africa, more than a third of all countries have been able to avoid military coups. To solve this puzzle, this article relates the likelihood of military coups to the degree of ethnic congruence between civilian and military leaders, arguing that coup avoidance is most likely when government and army either exhibit the same ethnic bias or are both ethnically balanced. This argument is illustrated by a comparison of the diverging experiences of Zambia and Uganda. While Zambia is among Africa’s coup-free countries, Uganda’s vulnerability to military intervention has varied over time – with four coups under Obote and the Uganda National Liberation Front (UNLF) but no coups under Amin and Museveni. Drawing on original longitudinal data on the ethnic distribution of political and military posts, the article shows that the absence of military coups in Zambia goes back to the balanced composition of government and army. In Uganda, coup avoidance under Amin and Museveni can be linked to the fact that government and army exhibited the same ethnic bias, whereas the coups against the Obote and UNLF regimes reflected either ethnic incongruence between civilian and military leaders or the destabilising combination of a similarly polarised government and army.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Lindemann, 2011. "The Ethnic Politics of Coup Avoidance: Evidence from Zambia and Uganda," Africa Spectrum, Institute of African Affairs, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, vol. 46(2), pages 3-41.
  • Handle: RePEc:gig:afjour:v:46:y:2011:i:2:p:3-41
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    File URL: http://hup.sub.uni-hamburg.de/giga/afsp/article/view/460/458
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Habyarimana, James & Humphreys, Macartan & Posner, Daniel N. & Weinstein, Jeremy M., 2007. "Why Does Ethnic Diversity Undermine Public Goods Provision?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 709-725, November.
    2. Posner,Daniel N., 2005. "Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521541794, October.
    3. Roger Tangri & Andrew M Mwenda, 2003. "Military corruption & Ugandan politics since the late 1990s," Review of African Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(98), pages 539-552, December.
    4. Jonathan M Powell & Clayton L Thyne, 2011. "Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010: A new dataset," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(2), pages 249-259, March.
    5. Posner,Daniel N., 2005. "Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521833981, October.
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    1. Rachel M. Gisselquist & Stefan Leiderer & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, 2014. "Ethnic Heterogeneity and Public Goods Provision in Zambia: Further Evidence of a Subnational 'Diversity Dividend'," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-162, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Gisselquist, Rachel M. & Leiderer, Stefan & Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel, 2014. "Ethnic heterogeneity and public goods provision in Zambia: Further evidence of a subnational 'diversity dividend'," WIDER Working Paper Series 162, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Gisselquist, Rachel M. & Leiderer, Stefan & Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel, 2016. "Ethnic Heterogeneity and Public Goods Provision in Zambia: Evidence of a Subnational “Diversity Dividend”," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 308-323.

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