Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the EU, US, China, and India up to 2060 in Comparison with Their Pledges under the Paris Agreement

A greenhouse gas (GHG) emission model was developed based on economic and energy sector development at the national level. Different development scenarios were established, including BAU (scenario with business as usual) and API (scenario with additional policy interventions). We simulated annual GHG emissions under different scenarios for the EU, US, China, and India from 2016 to 2060, and evaluated the impacts of emission changes on their mitigation pledges (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs). Two main conclusions were obtained. (1) In API, EU’s emissions fell from 4160 to 2340 MtCO 2 e/year and would probably achieve its INDC pledge. Though US’s emissions fell from 6330 to 4020 MtCO 2 e/year, it still had a deficit of 370 MtCO 2 e in 2025. If the Clean Power Plan (CPP) is abandoned, US’s emissions would remain above 6000 MtCO 2 e/year. (2) In BAU, China’s emissions peaked in 2044 while India’s emissions were already close to the strict INDC target. In API, China and India both achieved a reduction of about 2000 MtCO 2 e exceeding their INDC targets in 2030. Chinese emissions peaked in 2030, but Indian emissions grew until 2060. This study also indicates that developed countries should play a more important role in future mitigation efforts.