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A Framework for Sustainable Urban Water Management through Demand and Supply Forecasting: The Case of Istanbul

Author

Listed:
  • Murat Yalçıntaş

    (Business Administration, Istanbul Ticaret University, Istanbul 34445, Turkey
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Melih Bulu

    (School of Management and Administrative Sciences, Istanbul Sehir University, Istanbul 34662, Turkey
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Murat Küçükvar

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul Sehir University, Istanbul 34662, Turkey
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Hamidreza Samadi

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul Sehir University, Istanbul 34662, Turkey
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

The metropolitan city of Istanbul is becoming overcrowded and the demand for clean water is steeply rising in the city. The use of analytical approaches has become more and more critical for forecasting the water supply and demand balance in the long run. In this research, Istanbul’s water supply and demand data is collected for the period during 2006 and 2014. Then, using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the time series water supply and demand forecasting model is constructed for the period between 2015 and 2018. Three important sustainability metrics such as water loss to supply ratio, water loss to demand ratio, and water loss to residential demand ratio are also presented. The findings show that residential water demand is responsible for nearly 80% of total water use and the consumption categories including commercial, industrial, agriculture, outdoor, and others have a lower share in total water demand. The results also show that there is a considerable water loss in the water distribution system which requires significant investments on the water supply networks. Furthermore, the forecasting results indicated that pipeline projects will be critical in the near future due to expected increases in the total water demand of Istanbul. The authors suggest that sustainable management of water can be achieved by reducing the residential water use through the use of water efficient technologies in households and reduction in water supply loss through investments on distribution infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Murat Yalçıntaş & Melih Bulu & Murat Küçükvar & Hamidreza Samadi, 2015. "A Framework for Sustainable Urban Water Management through Demand and Supply Forecasting: The Case of Istanbul," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:7:y:2015:i:8:p:11050-11067:d:54158
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    2. Kucukvar, Murat & Haider, Muhammad Ali & Onat, Nuri Cihat, 2017. "Exploring the material footprints of national electricity production scenarios until 2050: The case for Turkey and UK," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 251-263.
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    4. Shengwen Zhou & Shunsheng Guo & Baigang Du & Shuo Huang & Jun Guo, 2022. "A Hybrid Framework for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting of Daily Urban Water Demand Using Attention-Based Convolutional Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, September.
    5. Hasan Fehmi Topal & Dexter V. L. Hunt & Christopher D. F. Rogers, 2021. "Sustainability Understanding and Behaviors across Urban Areas: A Case Study on Istanbul City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-38, July.
    6. Chih-Hao Wang & Hongwei Dong, 2017. "Responding to the Drought: A Spatial Statistical Approach to Investigating Residential Water Consumption in Fresno, California," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.
    7. Wanjuan Zhang & Yang Yu & Xueyu Zhou & Shuai Yang & Chuan Li, 2018. "Evaluating Water Consumption Based on Water Hierarchy Structure for Sustainable Development Using Grey Relational Analysis: Case Study in Chongqing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.

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