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Influence of Precipitation on Maize Yield in the Eastern United States

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  • Chengyi Huang

    (College of Economics and Management, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya'an, Sichuan 625014, China
    Plant Science Department, Agriculture Science College, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA 3 Resource and Environment Research Institute, Chengdu land and Resource Information Center, Chengdu, Sichuan 610072, China)

  • Sjoerd Willem Duiker

    (Plant Science Department, Agriculture Science College, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA 3 Resource and Environment Research Institute, Chengdu land and Resource Information Center, Chengdu, Sichuan 610072, China)

  • Liangji Deng

    (College of Economics and Management, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya'an, Sichuan 625014, China)

  • Conggang Fang

    (College of Economics and Management, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya'an, Sichuan 625014, China)

  • Weizhong Zeng

    (College of Economics and Management, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya'an, Sichuan 625014, China)

Abstract

Most General Circulation Models predict more infrequent but larger precipitation events in the eastern United States combined with a warmer climate. This could have a negative effect on maize production. To understand the sensitivity of maize production to future changes in precipitation, we analyzed growing season precipitation and average state maize yields in the eastern United States for the period 1963–2011. Growing season precipitation did not show a strong trend during this period. However, crop yields increased at 3.90% in the southern, 2.62% in the central, and 2.31% in the northern part of the eastern United States, which we attributed to technology and management. To separate technology and management effects from precipitation variability, we corrected maize yields for these yield trends. We then correlated maize yield corrected for advances in technology and management with total growing season precipitation and precipitation in the critical month of pollination, from the regional to state scale. Maize yield - precipitation relationships showed that moisture shortage rather than excess determined maize yield in the Eastern United States. The relationship between total growing season precipitation-maize yield was stronger in the southeastern than in the northeastern U.S., but the critical month precipitation-maize yield relationship was stronger in the northeastern than in the southeastern U.S. If climate model predictions are accurate and total growing season precipitation will not decrease in this region but variability will, it is likely that maize yields in the northeastern U.S. will be more significantly affected.

Suggested Citation

  • Chengyi Huang & Sjoerd Willem Duiker & Liangji Deng & Conggang Fang & Weizhong Zeng, 2015. "Influence of Precipitation on Maize Yield in the Eastern United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-15, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:7:y:2015:i:5:p:5996-6010:d:49624
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Manamboba Mitélama Balaka & Koffi Yovo, 2023. "Effet du changement climatique sur la production vivriere au Togo," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 35(1), pages 11-23, March.
    3. Zhixiao Zou & Changxiu Cheng & Shi Shen, 2023. "Effects of Meteorological Conditions and Irrigation Levels during Different Growth Stages on Maize Yield in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-11, February.
    4. Viktória Benďáková & Henrietta Nagy & Natália Turčeková & Izabela Adamičková & Peter Bielik, 2024. "Assessing the Climate Change Impacts on Maize Production in the Slovak Republic and Their Relevance to Sustainability: A Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-21, June.
    5. Abigail Fitzgibbon & Dan Pisut & David Fleisher, 2022. "Evaluation of Maximum Entropy (Maxent) Machine Learning Model to Assess Relationships between Climate and Corn Suitability," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, August.

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