IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i6p2714-d1615425.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

ARDL Bound Testing Approach for a Green Low-Carbon Circular Economy in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Irfan Kadioglu

    (Department of Banking and Insurance, Keles Vocation School, Bursa Uludag University, 16740 Keles, Bursa, Turkey)

  • Ozlem Turan

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Bursa Uludag University, Gorukle Campus, 16059 Nilufer, Bursa, Turkey)

  • Ismail Bulent Gurbuz

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Bursa Uludag University, Gorukle Campus, 16059 Nilufer, Bursa, Turkey)

Abstract

This study analyzes Turkey’s development toward a green economy between 1990 and 2022 within the framework of certain green economic indicators. The data consist of secondary data from the official databases of the World Bank and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT). In the study, the total amount of carbon emissions was chosen as an indicator of green growth, while gross domestic product per capita (GDP) represents economic growth, domestic loans granted by banks to the private sector (as a percentage of GDP) and foreign direct investment represent financial development, and electricity generation represents pollution. To determine whether the variables are cointegrated and to determine the direction and strength of the relationship between the variables, the ARDL bounds test and the FMOLS and DOLS long-run estimators were used. Finally, Toda Yamamoto (TY)–Granger tests were performed to determine causality. The long-term relationship between the variables was confirmed by the results of the ARDL bounds test. The error correction coefficient (CointEq(−1)) was estimated to be statistically significant and negative (−0.757) when the short-term analysis was performed. This result shows that the short-term imbalances will be corrected in less than a year, and the system will approach the long-term equilibrium. In the long-term analysis of the model, all variables selected to explain the dependent variable were found to have a statistically significant impact on the dependent variable. The GDP per capita variable, the indicator of economic growth, has a negative effect on the dependent variable, while the other independent variables have a positive effect. The results of the causality analysis indicate that the dependent variable carbon emissions (CO 2 ) has a unidirectional causality relationship with domestic credit provided to the private sector by banks (DC), which represents financial development, and with total electricity production (EP), which serves as an indicator of pollutants.

Suggested Citation

  • Irfan Kadioglu & Ozlem Turan & Ismail Bulent Gurbuz, 2025. "ARDL Bound Testing Approach for a Green Low-Carbon Circular Economy in Turkey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:6:p:2714-:d:1615425
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/6/2714/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/6/2714/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacek Garbol & Marlena Ciechan-Kujawa, 2024. "Circular Economy Models in Sustainability Reports of the Polish Electric Power Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Atif Jahanger & Yang Yu & Ashar Awan & Muhammad Zubair Chishti & Magdalena Radulescu & Daniel Balsalobre-Lorente, 2022. "The Impact of Hydropower Energy in Malaysia Under the EKC Hypothesis: Evidence From Quantile ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(3), pages 21582440221, July.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    4. Asif Khan & Sughra Bibi & Lorenzo Ardito & Jiaying Lyu & Hizar Hayat & Anas Mahmud Arif, 2020. "Revisiting the Dynamics of Tourism, Economic Growth, and Environmental Pollutants in the Emerging Economies—Sustainable Tourism Policy Implications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-23, March.
    5. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    6. Md. Emran Hossain & Soumen Rej & Sourav Mohan Saha & Joshua Chukwuma Onwe & Nnamdi Nwulu & Festus Victor Bekun & Amjad Taha, 2022. "Can Energy Efficiency Help in Achieving Carbon-Neutrality Pledges? A Developing Country Perspective Using Dynamic ARDL Simulations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-18, June.
    7. Agnieszka Janik & Adam Ryszko & Marek Szafraniec, 2020. "Greenhouse Gases and Circular Economy Issues in Sustainability Reports from the Energy Sector in the European Union," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-36, November.
    8. Zhao, Linhai & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan, 2023. "Role of natural resources utilization efficiency in achieving green economic recovery: Evidence from BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    11. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Estimation and Inference in Models of Cointegration: A Simulation Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 881, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    12. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2001-01, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    13. Ali Saleh Alshebami, 2023. "Green Innovation, Self-Efficacy, Entrepreneurial Orientation and Economic Performance: Interactions among Saudi Small Enterprises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-18, January.
    14. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    15. Matteo Trane & Luisa Marelli & Alice Siragusa & Riccardo Pollo & Patrizia Lombardi, 2023. "Progress by Research to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals in the EU: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-37, April.
    16. Iqbal, Shahid & Wang, Ying & Ali, Sharafat & Haider, Muhammad Afaq & Amin, Nabila, 2023. "Shifting to a green economy: Asymmetric macroeconomic determinants of renewable energy production in Pakistan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 234-241.
    17. Paulina Szyja, 2016. "The Role Of The State In Creating Green Economy," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 7(2), pages 207-222, June.
    18. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Buhari Doğan & Oana M. Driha & Daniel Balsalobre Lorente & Umer Shahzad, 2021. "The mitigating effects of economic complexity and renewable energy on carbon emissions in developed countries," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 1-12, January.
    2. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Bekun, Festus Victor & Etokakpan, Mfonobong Udom & Driha, Oana M., 2019. "A road to enhancements in natural gas use in Iran: A multivariate modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Roy, Arup, 2024. "Impacts of economic development, globalization, and gross capital formation on natural resources rents: Evidence from India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    4. Alsaleh, Mohd & Abdul-Rahim, A.S., 2022. "The pathway toward pollution mitigation in EU28 region: Does hydropower growth make a difference?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 291-301.
    5. Oryani, Bahareh & Koo, Yoonmo & Rezania, Shahabaldin & Shafiee, Afsaneh, 2021. "Investigating the asymmetric impact of energy consumption on reshaping future energy policy and economic growth in Iran using extended Cobb-Douglas production function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    6. Chor Foon Tang and Eu Chye Tan, 2012. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    7. Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2010. "Bounds test approach to cointegration and causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 52-58, January.
    8. Awad, Atif, 2019. "Does economic integration damage or benefit the environment? Africa's experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 991-999.
    9. André Madeira & Victor Moutinho & José Alberto Fuinhas, 2021. "Does waiting times decrease or increase operational costs in short and long-term? Evidence from Portuguese public hospitals," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(8), pages 1195-1216, November.
    10. Farhani, Sahbi & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "The role of natural gas consumption and trade in Tunisia's output," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 677-684.
    11. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Bee Wah, 2014. "A revalidation of the savings–growth nexus in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 370-377.
    12. Muhammad Qayyum & Minhaj Ali & Mir Muhammad Nizamani & Shijie Li & Yuyuan Yu & Atif Jahanger, 2021. "Nexus between Financial Development, Renewable Energy Consumption, Technological Innovations and CO 2 Emissions: The Case of India," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-19, July.
    13. Anthony N. Rezitis & Shaikh Mostak Ahammad, 2017. "Sectoral Growth and Energy Consumption in South and Southeast Asian Countries: Evidence from a Panel Data Approach," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 10, pages 1-17, November.
    14. Chor Foon Tang and Eu Chye Tan, 2012. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    15. Mounir Belloumi & Atef Saad Alshehry, 2016. "The Impact of Urbanization on Energy Intensity in Saudi Arabia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, April.
    16. Aleh Mazol, 2015. "Exchange Rate, Imports of Intermediate and Capital Goods and GDP Growth in Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 32, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    17. Georgios Bertsatos & Plutarchos Sakellaris & Mike G. Tsionas, 2022. "Extensions of the Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) bounds testing procedure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 605-634, February.
    18. Fatma Erdem & Erdal Özmen, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1041-1058, November.
    19. Olimpia Neagu, 2019. "The Link between Economic Complexity and Carbon Emissions in the European Union Countries: A Model Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-27, August.
    20. Anke Hoeffler & Mr. Robert H. Bates & Ms. Ghada Fayad, 2012. "Income and Democracy: Lipset's Law Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2012/295, International Monetary Fund.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:6:p:2714-:d:1615425. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.