Conceptual Discrimination and Quantitative Estimation of Climate Carrying Capacity: A Case Study of China

To address the conceptual ambiguity surrounding climate carrying capacity and the lack of a unified quantitative assessment method, here we integrate existing concepts and propose a comprehensive evaluation framework for climate carrying capacity, emphasizing the threshold of the climate system’s capacity to support human activities. Additionally, the evaluation framework incorporates carbon carrying capacity, climate resource production potential, wind resource potential, and solar resource potential as its four key components, and employs a vector modeling approach to quantitatively evaluate the temporal and spatial variations in climate carrying capacity across China’s provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions from 1986 to 2020. The results reveal that most regions exhibited low coefficients of variation in the climate carrying capacity index during the study period, indicating an overall stable climate carrying capacity and good potential for further development. However, Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin demonstrated exceptionally high coefficients of variation, at 62.8%, 74.3%, and 74.4%, respectively, warranting further attention. Tibet, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia exhibited significantly higher climate carrying capacity indices than other areas, whereas Ningxia, Hainan, and Chongqing generally displayed lower indices. This study enhances the theoretical framework of climate carrying capacity and offers a scientific foundation for formulating sustainable development policies, promoting coordinated regional development, protecting the environment, and addressing climate change.