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Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Vegetation Cover in the Tarim River Basin, China, and Analysis of the Driving Factors

Author

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  • Haisheng Tang

    (College of Grassland Science, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    These authors have contributed equally to this work and share first authorship.)

  • Lan Wang

    (College of Grassland Science, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Post-Doctoral Mobile Station, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    These authors have contributed equally to this work and share first authorship.)

  • Yang Wang

    (College of Grassland Science, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)

Abstract

The Tarim River Basin (TRB) in Northwest China has an extremely fragile ecological environment that is highly sensitive to climate change. Understanding the long-term change dynamics of vegetation coverage in this arid zone is critically important for predicting future trends as well as for improving regional ecological protection and soil and water conservation measures. Based on NDVI data from 2000 to 2022, a temporal and spatial analysis of vegetation coverage in the TRB is carried out using the pixel dichotomy model, Sen trend analysis, the MK test, the Hurst index, and correlation analysis. The results reveal the following: (1) from 2000 to 2022, the vegetation coverage shows a fluctuating increasing trend, with decreases in extremely low and low coverage areas and increases in high and medium coverage areas. Extremely low vegetation coverage accounts for 46.89% of the study area. (2) Throughout the 23-year period, the change trend of vegetation cover essentially remains stable. The proportion of the improved area is greater than that of the degraded area, accounting for 66.49% and 27.93%, respectively, and there is significant fluctuation variation, accounting for 29.99%. Further, there is high variation in vegetation cover as well as high ecological environment vulnerability. The future area of continuous improvement accounts for 31.64%, which is larger than that of continuous degradation (27.17%), and the area of uncertainty accounts for 41.18%, which is strongly random. (3) The distance between land use and the closest river is the main limiting factor of vegetation cover change in the five studied sub-regions of the TRB. The highest explanatory power of the combined factor of land use and precipitation is 0.723. With a correlation Q value above 0.6, the interaction between land use type and natural factors (e.g., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, distance from the river, etc.) is significant. This study is helpful to predict the trend of vegetation change in the TRB, and provides a scientific basis for regional ecological protection, soil and water conservation, and land use planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Haisheng Tang & Lan Wang & Yang Wang, 2025. "Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Vegetation Cover in the Tarim River Basin, China, and Analysis of the Driving Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-26, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:4:p:1414-:d:1587081
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhao, Rongqin & Liu, Ying & Tian, Mengmeng & Ding, Minglei & Cao, Lianhai & Zhang, Zhanping & Chuai, Xiaowei & Xiao, Liangang & Yao, Lunguang, 2018. "Impacts of water and land resources exploitation on agricultural carbon emissions: The water-land-energy-carbon nexus," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 480-492.
    2. Mengwei Song & Xiaohui Jiang & Yuxin Lei & Yirui Zhao & Wenjuan Cai, 2023. "Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of extreme hydrometeorological events in the Yellow River Basin and their effects on vegetation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 1863-1878, March.
    3. Mianting Huang & Zhenxia Mu & Shikang Zhao & Rongqin Yang, 2024. "Ecological Water Requirement of Natural Vegetation in the Tarim River Basin Based on Multi-Source Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-17, August.
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