Future Risk from Current Sustainability Assessment Frameworks for the Resource Sector

This paper introduces a comprehensive sustainability assessment framework integrating Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA) with Scenario Planning and Sensitivity Analysis, using the alumina industry as a case study. Current sustainability frameworks often focus narrowly on carbon emissions, neglecting broader environmental and social impacts, such as biodiversity loss, land rehabilitation, and social equity. By combining LCSA with forward-looking Scenario Planning, the proposed framework provides a multi-dimensional assessment, enabling industries to anticipate future challenges and adapt to technological, regulatory, and market changes. The analysis of Australia’s alumina production under Net-Zero and Accelerated Net-Zero scenarios demonstrates significant decarbonisation potential, achieving up to 97% emission reductions while improving energy efficiency by 50%. Despite these advances, indicators like biodiversity preservation and social equity remain insufficiently addressed, underscoring the need for a more holistic, industry-specific approach. Future research directions include improving measurement methods for ecological and social indicators, exploring policy mechanisms to enhance adoption, and establishing partnerships with international bodies like the Aluminium Stewardship Initiative to ensure global adaptability. The increasing adoption of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) methodologies highlights the need for comprehensive impact management and higher standards of governance. Although the proposed framework has notable strengths, its reliance on region-specific quantifiable indicators and simplified models limits its global adaptability. The proposed framework advocates for a mandatory, independent regulatory mechanism to drive balanced, transparent reporting, supporting industries in achieving transformative sustainability outcomes.