Variability of the Level of Budget Expenditures on Social Insurance of Farmers in the Agricultural Policy of Poland After Accession to the European Union

The purpose of this article was to examine the level and variability of budgetary expenditures directed to the Agricultural Social Insurance Fund (ASIF) in Poland in the form of subsidies to the Farmers’ Pension Fund in the period 2004–2024, i.e., after Poland’s accession to the European Union (EU). The aim of the study was also to determine the share of subsidies to the farmers’ social insurance fund in the total expenditures of the Polish agricultural budget, as well as the relationship of ASIF expenditures to state budget expenditures and GDP dynamics. The authors attempted to estimate the trend function for these time series and the degree of fit of the equations describing them. The formation of the nominal and real level of budget expenditures on the ASIF in 2004–2024 was evaluated. It was assumed that spending on the ASIF is an element of agricultural policy, realising its redistributive and social objectives, but indirectly also pro-development objectives by supporting generational change in agriculture. The research showed that the real level of spending on ASIF declined during Poland’s EU membership, as did the share of this spending in the total agricultural budget. The subsidy to the social security system also did not follow the changes in GDP and state budget expenditure proportionally, showing much less dynamism over the period studied. This means that budget support for farmers’ social security is losing its importance as an instrument of agricultural policy. It has been shown that the economic and social components of agricultural expenditure have not grown in harmony. The changes in the level of spending on the ASIF in the period 2004–2024 were also analysed in relation to demographic changes, i.e., the number of farmers insured in the ASIF and recipients of agricultural pensions. It has been shown that, despite a significant decrease in the number of farmers receiving pensions from the ASIF, there remains a large disparity between the average pension benefits of farmers and those of the general social insurance system (Social Insurance Institution—SII). The reduction in this disparity is not served by a real reduction in subsidies to the ASIF.