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Modeling Dynamic Processes in the Black Sea Pelagic Habitat—Causal Connections between Abiotic and Biotic Factors in Two Climate Change Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Luminita Lazar

    (Chemical Oceanography and Marine Pollution Department, National Institute for Marine Research and Development “Grigore Antipa”, 300 Mamaia Blvd., 900581 Constanta, Romania)

  • Laura Boicenco

    (National Institute for Marine Research and Development “Grigore Antipa”, 300 Mamaia Blvd., 900581 Constanta, Romania)

  • Elena Pantea

    (Ecology and Marine Biology Department, National Institute for Marine Research and Development “Grigore Antipa”, 300 Mamaia Blvd., 900581 Constanta, Romania)

  • Florin Timofte

    (National Institute for Marine Research and Development “Grigore Antipa”, 300 Mamaia Blvd., 900581 Constanta, Romania)

  • Oana Vlas

    (Ecology and Marine Biology Department, National Institute for Marine Research and Development “Grigore Antipa”, 300 Mamaia Blvd., 900581 Constanta, Romania)

  • Elena Bișinicu

    (Ecology and Marine Biology Department, National Institute for Marine Research and Development “Grigore Antipa”, 300 Mamaia Blvd., 900581 Constanta, Romania)

Abstract

The paper contributes to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) targeting Life Below Water by introducing user-friendly modeling approaches. It delves into the impact of abiotic factors on the first two trophic levels within the marine ecosystem, both naturally and due to human influence. Specifically, the study examines the connections between environmental parameters (e.g., temperature, salinity, nutrients) and plankton along the Romanian Black Sea coast during the warm season over a decade. The research develops models to forecast zooplankton proliferation using machine learning (ML) algorithms and gathered data. Water temperature significantly affects copepods and “other groups” of zooplankton densities during the warm season. Conversely, no discernible impact is observed on dinoflagellate Noctiluca scintillans blooms. Salinity fluctuations notably influence typical phytoplankton proliferation, with phosphate concentrations primarily driving widespread blooms. The study explores two scenarios for forecasting zooplankton growth: Business as Usual, predicting modest increases in temperature, salinity, and constant nutrient levels, and the Mild scenario, projecting substantial temperature and salinity increases alongside significant nutrient decrease by 2042. The findings underscore high densities of Noctiluca scintillans under both scenarios, particularly pronounced in the second scenario, surpassing the first by around 70%. These findings, indicative of a eutrophic ecosystem, underscore the potential implications of altered abiotic factors on ecosystem health, aligning with SDGs focused on Life Below Water.

Suggested Citation

  • Luminita Lazar & Laura Boicenco & Elena Pantea & Florin Timofte & Oana Vlas & Elena Bișinicu, 2024. "Modeling Dynamic Processes in the Black Sea Pelagic Habitat—Causal Connections between Abiotic and Biotic Factors in Two Climate Change Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-24, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:5:p:1849-:d:1344755
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. G. Abord-Hugon Nonet & T. Gössling & R. Tulder & J. M. Bryson, 2022. "Multi-stakeholder Engagement for the Sustainable Development Goals: Introduction to the Special Issue," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 180(4), pages 945-957, November.
    2. Silvana N.R. Birchenough & Henning Reiss & Steven Degraer & Nova Mieszkowska & Ángel Borja & Lene Buhl‐Mortensen & Ulrike Braeckman & Johan Craeymeersch & Ilse De Mesel & Francis Kerckhof & Ingrid Krö, 2015. "Climate change and marine benthos: a review of existing research and future directions in the North Atlantic," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(2), pages 203-223, March.
    3. Franke, Andrea & Blenckner, Thorsten & Duarte, Carlos M. & Ott, Konrad & Fleming, Lora E. & Avan, Antia & Reusch, Thorsten B.H. & Bertram, Christine & Hein, Jonas & Kronfeld-Goharani, Ulrike & Dierkin, 2020. "Operationalizing Ocean Health: Toward Integrated Research on Ocean Health and Recovery to Achieve Ocean Sustainability," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 228646, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Ricardo Vinuesa & Hossein Azizpour & Iolanda Leite & Madeline Balaam & Virginia Dignum & Sami Domisch & Anna Felländer & Simone Daniela Langhans & Max Tegmark & Francesco Fuso Nerini, 2020. "The role of artificial intelligence in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andra Oros & Valentina Coatu & Nicoleta Damir & Diana Danilov & Elena Ristea, 2024. "Recent Findings on the Pollution Levels in the Romanian Black Sea Ecosystem: Implications for Achieving Good Environmental Status (GES) Under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (Directive 2008/56," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-49, November.

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