Research on Industrial CO 2 Emission Intensity and Its Driving Mechanism Under China’s Dual Carbon Target

As global climate change becomes increasingly severe, industrial CO 2 emissions have received increasing attention, but the impact factors and driving mechanisms of industrial CO 2 emission intensity remain unclear. Based on panel data from 2010 to 2021 in Shandong Province, a key economic region in eastern China, the industrial CO 2 emission intensity under China’s dual carbon target was analyzed using multivariate ordination methods. The results showed that (1) total CO 2 emissions from industry are increasing annually, with an average growth rate of 3.74%, and electricity, coal, and coke are the primary sources of CO 2 emissions. (2) Total CO 2 emissions originated primarily from the heavy manufacturing, energy production, and high energy intensity industry categories, and the CO 2 emission intensity of different types of energy increased by 21.24% from 2010 to 2021. (3) CO 2 emission intensity is significantly positively correlated with the proportion of high energy intensive industry, energy consumption intensity, and investment intensity and significantly negatively correlated with gross industrial output. In addition, the effects of different types of energy on industrial CO 2 emission intensity varied, and coal, coke, electricity, and diesel oil were significantly positively correlated with CO 2 emission intensity. Therefore, to reduce the CO 2 emission intensity of the industrial sector in the future and to achieve China’s dual carbon target, it is necessary to adjust and optimize the industrial and energy structure, strengthen technological progress and innovation, improve energy utilization efficiency, improve and implement relevant policies for industrial carbon reduction, and then ensure the sustainable development of the economy, society, and environment.