IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i21p9164-d1504138.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-Varying Spillover Effects Between Clean and Traditional Energy Under Multiple Uncertainty Risk: Evidence from the U.S. Market

Author

Listed:
  • Rui Du

    (College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China)

  • Pu Xu

    (College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China)

Abstract

The global energy landscape is undergoing an unprecedented transformation with the rapid development of clean energy and the continued significance of traditional energy creating a complex dynamic relationship. This study employs the TVP-QVAR-DY model to systematically examine the dynamic spillover effects between clean and traditional energy markets in the United States, focusing on the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR). The findings reveal (1) significant time-varying spillover effects between the two markets, with total spillover effects ranging from 30% to 50%, intensifying during extreme events; (2) increases in EPU and GPR exacerbate uncertainty in energy markets, particularly in the traditional energy sector, with spillover effects from crude oil to natural gas reaching 23.60% and vice versa at 24.30%; and (3) in the short term, the clean energy market is influenced by traditional energy, with spillover effects from oil to clean energy at 5.10%, while in the medium to long term it gradually becomes independent and inversely affects the traditional energy market, contributing 2.94% to oil spillovers. The results indicate that as the global energy transition deepens, the clean energy market is shifting from a risk receiver to a risk contributor. Based on these findings, the study proposes policy recommendations including accelerating energy structure transition, managing macroeconomic uncertainty risks, coordinating domestic and international energy markets, and leveraging market mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Du & Pu Xu, 2024. "Time-Varying Spillover Effects Between Clean and Traditional Energy Under Multiple Uncertainty Risk: Evidence from the U.S. Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-19, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:21:p:9164-:d:1504138
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/21/9164/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/21/9164/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Evangelos Kyritsis and Apostolos Serletis, 2019. "Oil Prices and the Renewable Energy Sector," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(The New E).
    3. Jozef Baruník & Tomáš Křehlík, 2018. "Measuring the Frequency Dynamics of Financial Connectedness and Systemic Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 271-296.
    4. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    5. Patrick M. Crowley, 2007. "A Guide To Wavelets For Economists," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 207-267, April.
    6. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2018. "The impact of energy prices on clean energy stock prices. A multivariate quantile dependence approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 136-152.
    7. Ferrer, Román & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & López, Raquel & Jareño, Francisco, 2018. "Time and frequency dynamics of connectedness between renewable energy stocks and crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-20.
    8. Cavus, Muhammed & Allahham, Adib & Adhikari, Kabita & Giaouris, Damian, 2024. "A hybrid method based on logic predictive controller for flexible hybrid microgrid with plug-and-play capabilities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahad, Muhammad & Imran, Zulfiqar Ali & Shahzad, Khurram, 2024. "Safe haven between European ESG and energy sector under Russian-Ukraine war: Role of sustainable investments for portfolio diversification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Igeland, Philip & Schroeder, Leon & Yahya, Muhammad & Okhrin, Yarema & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "The energy transition: The behavior of renewable energy stock during the times of energy security uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    3. Lei, Heng & Xue, Minggao & Liu, Huiling & Ye, Jing, 2023. "Precious metal as a safe haven for global ESG stocks: Portfolio implications for socially responsible investing," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Zhang, Jiahao & Chen, Xiaodan & Wei, Yu & Bai, Lan, 2023. "Does the connectedness among fossil energy returns matter for renewable energy stock returns? Fresh insights from the Cross-Quantilogram analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Lei, Heng & Xue, Minggao & Ye, Jing, 2024. "The nexus between ReFi, carbon, fossil energy, and clean energy assets: Quantile time–frequency connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Feng, Huiqun & Zhang, Jun & Guo, Na, 2023. "Time-varying linkages between energy and stock markets: Dynamic spillovers and driving factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    7. Wang, Jiqian & Ma, Feng & Bouri, Elie & Zhong, Juandan, 2022. "Volatility of clean energy and natural gas, uncertainty indices, and global economic conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. Hemrit, Wael & Benlagha, Noureddine, 2021. "Does renewable energy index respond to the pandemic uncertainty?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 336-347.
    9. Cui Jinxin & Zou Huiwen, 2020. "Connectedness Among Economic Policy Uncertainties: Evidence from the Time and Frequency Domain Perspectives," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 8(5), pages 401-433, October.
    10. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Doğan, Buhari & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Wohar, Mark, 2024. "Asymmetric spillover effects in energy markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 470-502.
    11. Sevillano, María Caridad & Jareño, Francisco & López, Raquel & Esparcia, Carlos, 2024. "Connectedness between oil price shocks and US sector returns: Evidence from TVP-VAR and wavelet decomposition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    12. Gu, Fu & Wang, Jiqiang & Guo, Jianfeng & Fan, Ying, 2020. "How the supply and demand of steam coal affect the investment in clean energy industry? Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Lucey, Brian & Ren, Boru, 2023. "Time-varying tail risk connectedness among sustainability-related products and fossil energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    14. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    15. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Connectivity and spillover during crises: Highlighting the prominent and growing role of green energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    16. Wu, Hao & Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Fei & Mao, Weifang, 2023. "How does economic policy uncertainty drive time–frequency connectedness across commodity and financial markets?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Tareq Saeed & Elie Bouri & Dang Khoa Tran, 2020. "Hedging Strategies of Green Assets against Dirty Energy Assets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.
    18. Zhu, Huiming & Chen, Weiyan & Hau, Liya & Chen, Qitong, 2021. "Time-frequency connectedness of crude oil, economic policy uncertainty and Chinese commodity markets: Evidence from rolling window analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    19. Zhang, Hongwei & Zhang, Yubo & Gao, Wang & Li, Yingli, 2023. "Extreme quantile spillovers and drivers among clean energy, electricity and energy metals markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    20. Shah, Adil Ahmad & Sahay, Arvind, 2024. "Is gold a preferable diversifier of cleaner equity risk across diverse scenarios? Evidence from multidimensional connectedness and spillover measures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:21:p:9164-:d:1504138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.