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Land Use Changes and Future Land Use Scenario Simulations of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor under the Belt and Road Initiative

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  • Yuanjie Deng

    (School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong 643000, China
    Research Center of Agricultural Economy, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong 643000, China)

  • Hang Chen

    (School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong 643000, China)

  • Yifeng Hai

    (School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong 643000, China)

Abstract

The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative, is of great significance for the promotion of sustainable development in the region through the study of land use change and the simulation of future multi-scenarios. Based on the multi-period land use data of the CPEC, this study firstly analyzed the spatial and temporal land use changes in the CPEC from 2000 to 2020 by using GIS technology, and, secondly, simulated the land use patterns of the CPEC under four scenarios, namely, natural development, investment priority, ecological protection, and harmonious development, in 2040 by using the Markov-FLUS model with comprehensive consideration of natural, socio-economic, and other driving factors. The results show the following: (1) The urban land, forest land, and grassland in the CPEC from 2000 to 2020 show an increasing trend, while the farmland, unutilized land, and water area categories show a decreasing trend. In terms of land use transfer changes, the most frequently transferred out is the conversion of unutilized land to grassland. (2) The FLUS model has high accuracy in simulating the land use pattern of the CPEC, and its applicability in the CPEC area is strong and can be used to simulate the future land use pattern of the CPEC. (3) Among the four different land use scenarios, the harmonious development scenario strikes a better balance between infrastructure construction, economic development, and ecological protection, and can provide a scientific basis for future land management in the CPEC, in order to highlight the importance of promoting economic growth and ecological protection and ultimately realize sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuanjie Deng & Hang Chen & Yifeng Hai, 2024. "Land Use Changes and Future Land Use Scenario Simulations of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor under the Belt and Road Initiative," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-23, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:20:p:8842-:d:1497313
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    2. Lintao Liu & Shouchao Yu & Hengjia Zhang & Yong Wang & Chao Liang, 2023. "Analysis of Land Use Change Drivers and Simulation of Different Future Scenarios: Taking Shanxi Province of China as an Example," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Stephen Polasky & Erik Nelson & Derric Pennington & Kris Johnson, 2011. "The Impact of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity and Returns to Landowners: A Case Study in the State of Minnesota," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(2), pages 219-242, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiang-Dong Feng & Xiang-Long Wang & Li Wen & Yao Yuan & Yu-Qin Zhang, 2024. "Research and Prediction Analysis of Key Factors Influencing the Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Countries Along the “Belt and Road” Based on Panel Regression and the A-A-E Coupling Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-30, December.
    2. Guangzhao Wu & Yilin Lin & Junsan Zhao & Qiaoxiong Chen, 2024. "Identification of Land Use Conflict Based on Multi-Scenario Simulation—Taking the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-21, November.

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