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Research on Machine Learning-Based Method for Predicting Industrial Park Electric Vehicle Charging Load

Author

Listed:
  • Sijiang Ma

    (Laboratory of Transport Pollution Control and Monitoring Technology, Beijing 100028, China
    School of Control and Computer Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Jin Ning

    (Laboratory of Transport Pollution Control and Monitoring Technology, Beijing 100028, China
    School of Control and Computer Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Ning Mao

    (Laboratory of Transport Pollution Control and Monitoring Technology, Beijing 100028, China
    Transport Planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100028, China)

  • Jie Liu

    (Laboratory of Transport Pollution Control and Monitoring Technology, Beijing 100028, China
    Transport Planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100028, China)

  • Ruifeng Shi

    (Laboratory of Transport Pollution Control and Monitoring Technology, Beijing 100028, China
    School of Control and Computer Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

Abstract

To achieve global sustainability goals and meet the urgent demands of carbon neutrality, China is continuously transforming its energy structure. In this process, electric vehicles (EVs) are playing an increasingly important role in energy transition and have become one of the primary user groups in the electricity market. Traditional load prediction algorithms have difficulty in constructing mathematical models for predicting the charging load of electric vehicles, which is characterized by high randomness, high volatility, and high spatial heterogeneity. Moreover, the predicted results often exhibit a certain degree of lag. Therefore, this study approaches the analysis from two perspectives: the overall industrial park and individual charging stations. By analyzing specific load data, the overall framework for the training dataset was established. Additionally, based on the evaluation system proposed in this study and utilizing both Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms, a framework for machine learning-based load prediction methods was constructed to forecast electric vehicle charging loads in industrial parks. Through a case analysis, it was found that the proposed solution for the short-term prediction of the charging load in industrial park electric vehicles can achieve accurate and stable forecasting results. Specifically, in terms of data prediction for normal working days and statutory holidays, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm demonstrated high accuracy, with R 2 coefficients of 0.9283 and 0.9154, respectively, indicating the good interpretability of the model. In terms of weekend holiday data prediction, the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) algorithm achieved an R 2 coefficient of as high as 0.9586, significantly surpassing the LSTM algorithm’s value of 0.9415, demonstrating superior performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Sijiang Ma & Jin Ning & Ning Mao & Jie Liu & Ruifeng Shi, 2024. "Research on Machine Learning-Based Method for Predicting Industrial Park Electric Vehicle Charging Load," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-18, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:17:p:7258-:d:1462588
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jiaan Zhang & Chenyu Liu & Leijiao Ge, 2022. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Model of Electric Vehicle Charging Load Based on MCCNN-TCN," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-25, April.
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