IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i15p6287-d1440933.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring Apulia’s Regional Tourism Attractiveness through the Lens of Sustainability: A Machine Learning Approach and Counterfactual Explainability Process

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Castellana

    (Department of Interdisciplinary Medicine (DIM), University of Bari Aldo Moro, Piazza Giulio Cesare 11, 70100 Bari, Italy)

  • Roberta Zupo

    (Department of Interdisciplinary Medicine (DIM), University of Bari Aldo Moro, Piazza Giulio Cesare 11, 70100 Bari, Italy)

  • Filomena Corbo

    (Department of Pharmacy-Drug Sciences, University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, 70125 Bari, Italy)

  • Pasquale Crupi

    (Department of Agricultural, Food and Forest Science, University of Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo, Italy)

  • Feliciana Catino

    (Unit of Innovation and Smart City, Local Health Authority of Taranto, 74121 Taranto, Italy)

  • Angelo Michele Petrosillo

    (Department of Precision and Regenerative Medicine and Ionian Area (DiMePRe-J), University of Bari Aldo Moro, Piazza Giulio Cesare 11, 70100 Bari, Italy)

  • Orazio Valerio Giannico

    (Unit of Statistics and Epidemiology, Local Health Authority of Taranto, 74121 Taranto, Italy)

  • Rodolfo Sardone

    (Unit of Statistics and Epidemiology, Local Health Authority of Taranto, 74121 Taranto, Italy)

  • Maria Lisa Clodoveo

    (Department of Interdisciplinary Medicine (DIM), University of Bari Aldo Moro, Piazza Giulio Cesare 11, 70100 Bari, Italy)

Abstract

Visitor attraction dynamics lead tourism industry paths. A complex artificial neural network model was built to predict the incoming tourism flow in the Apulia region of Southern Italy as a function of the heterogeneity of the tourism supply available in this area. Open data from the Regional Tourism Observatory were targeted. Information on the distribution of facilities and activities that attract regional tourist flows was collected and grouped by municipality. An artificial neural network model was built with total tourist attendance as the dependent variable and tourist attractions as regressors. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was used to select the optimal model using the lowest value. The final model was run with a hidden layer consisting of three neurons and a decay value of 0.01. A Multi-Objective Counterfactual model (MOC) was then constructed using a randomly selected row of normalized data frame to validate a useful tool in increasing total tourist attendance by 20% over that of the randomly selected municipality. A Garson’s variables importance plot indicated natural landscapes such as beaches, sea caves, and natural parks have a primary role expressed in terms of variable importance in the AI algorithm when used as an innovative methodology for evaluating tourism flows in the Apulia region. A further MOC model built using a randomly selected row of normalized data frame showed convents, libraries, historical buildings, public gardens, and museums as the top five features most modified to improve total attendance in a randomly selected municipality. Use of AI modeling revealed that the implementation of nature-based solutions may speed up the flow of tourism in the Apulia region while also promoting sustainable social development.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Castellana & Roberta Zupo & Filomena Corbo & Pasquale Crupi & Feliciana Catino & Angelo Michele Petrosillo & Orazio Valerio Giannico & Rodolfo Sardone & Maria Lisa Clodoveo, 2024. "Exploring Apulia’s Regional Tourism Attractiveness through the Lens of Sustainability: A Machine Learning Approach and Counterfactual Explainability Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-13, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:15:p:6287-:d:1440933
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/15/6287/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/15/6287/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucy E. Keniger & Kevin J. Gaston & Katherine N. Irvine & Richard A. Fuller, 2013. "What are the Benefits of Interacting with Nature?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-23, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qiang Wen & Haiqiang Liu & Jinyuan Chen & Huiyao Ye & Zeyu Pan, 2023. "Evaluation of Satisfaction with the Built Environment of University Buildings under the Epidemic and Its Impact on Student Anxiety," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Martina Zorić & Jelena Farkić & Marko Kebert & Emina Mladenović & Dragić Karaklić & Gorana Isailović & Saša Orlović, 2022. "Developing Forest Therapy Programmes Based on the Health Benefits of Terpenes in Dominant Tree Species in Tara National Park (Serbia)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-15, May.
    3. Konrad Reuß & Christopher Huth, 2024. "Redefining Urban Recreation: A Demand Analysis for Urban Year-Round Green Exercise," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(11), pages 1-10, November.
    4. Aleksandra Kosanic & Karsten Lambers & Stamatia Galata & Katja Kothieringer & Angelika Abderhalden, 2023. "Importance of Cultural Ecosystem Services for Cultural Identity and Wellbeing in the Lower Engadine, Switzerland," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Qiaohui Liu & Xiaoping Wang & Jinglan Liu & Guolin Zhang & Congying An & Yuqi Liu & Xiaoli Fan & Yishen Hu & Heng Zhang, 2021. "The Relationship between the Restorative Perception of the Environment and the Physiological and Psychological Effects of Different Types of Forests on University Students," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-16, November.
    6. Lissy Fehnker & Diane Pearson & Peter Howland, 2022. "Informing Future Land Systems Using Self-Reported Pathways and Barriers to Connections to Nature: A Case Study in Auckland, New Zealand," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, October.
    7. Kinga Kimic & Albert Fekete, 2022. "The Ratio of Biologically Vital Areas as a Measure of the Sustainability of Urban Parks Using the Example of Budapest, Hungary," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, May.
    8. Piotr Próchniak & Agnieszka Próchniak, 2023. "Adventure Recreation in Blue Spaces and the Wellbeing of Young Polish Adults," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-16, March.
    9. Rosemary Hiscock & Pierpaolo Mudu & Matthias Braubach & Marco Martuzzi & Laura Perez & Clive Sabel, 2014. "Wellbeing Impacts of City Policies for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-34, November.
    10. Awoyemi, Adewale G. & Ibáñez-Rueda, Nazaret & Guardiola, Jorge & Ibáñez-Álamo, Juan Diego, 2024. "Human-nature interactions in the Afrotropics: Experiential and cognitive connections among urban residents in southern Nigeria," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    11. Lingbo Liu & Yuni Zhong & Siya Ao & Hao Wu, 2019. "Exploring the Relevance of Green Space and Epidemic Diseases Based on Panel Data in China from 2007 to 2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-21, July.
    12. Mu-Fei He & Shu-Lin Shi & Ming-Yi He & Yan-Peng Leng & Shao-Yi Wang, 2021. "What Affects Older Adults’ Viewing Behaviors in Neighborhood Open Space: A Study in Hong Kong," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-16, March.
    13. Daniel T. C. Cox & Danielle F. Shanahan & Hannah L. Hudson & Richard A. Fuller & Karen Anderson & Steven Hancock & Kevin J. Gaston, 2017. "Doses of Nearby Nature Simultaneously Associated with Multiple Health Benefits," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-13, February.
    14. Greg D. Simpson & Jackie Parker, 2018. "Data on Peer-Reviewed Papers about Green Infrastructure, Urban Nature, and City Liveability," Data, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-10, November.
    15. Paolo Contini & Santo Di Nuovo & Maria Sinatra & Elisabeta Osmanaj & Lucia Monacis, 2022. "Investigating the Buffering Effects of Greenery on the Adverse Emotional, Mental and Behavioral Health during the Pandemic Period," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-13, July.
    16. Nicole V. DeVille & Linda Powers Tomasso & Olivia P. Stoddard & Grete E. Wilt & Teresa H. Horton & Kathleen L. Wolf & Eric Brymer & Peter H. Kahn & Peter James, 2021. "Time Spent in Nature Is Associated with Increased Pro-Environmental Attitudes and Behaviors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-18, July.
    17. A-Young Lee & Seon Ok Kim & Gyung Mee Gim & Dae Sik Kim & Sin-Ae Park, 2019. "Care Farming Program for Family Health: A Pilot Study with Mothers and Children," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-14, December.
    18. Melissa R. Marselle & Katherine N. Irvine & Altea Lorenzo-Arribas & Sara L. Warber, 2014. "Moving beyond Green: Exploring the Relationship of Environment Type and Indicators of Perceived Environmental Quality on Emotional Well-Being following Group Walks," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, December.
    19. Junia N. de Brito & Zachary C. Pope & Nathan R. Mitchell & Ingrid E. Schneider & Jean M. Larson & Teresa H. Horton & Mark A. Pereira, 2019. "Changes in Psychological and Cognitive Outcomes after Green versus Suburban Walking: A Pilot Crossover Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-12, August.
    20. Greg D. Simpson & Jackie Parker, 2018. "Data for an Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA) of a Public Green Infrastructure and Urban Nature Space in Perth, Western Australia," Data, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-9, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:15:p:6287-:d:1440933. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.