Does Rural Labor Transfer Impact Chinese Agricultural Carbon Emission Efficiency? A Substitution Perspective of Agricultural Machinery

In this paper, referring to Kaya’s method, the ratio of gross agricultural production (GAP) and agricultural carbon emission is defined as agricultural carbon emission efficiency (ACEE). Considering rural labor transfer (RLT) increases the agricultural machinery intensity (AMI), the two are substitutes for each other and may interact with agricultural carbon emission efficiency (ACEE). We constructed a Simultaneous Equations Model (SEM) of ACEE, RLT and AMI and analyzed the interaction mechanism of these three variables using the Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS). The following conclusions are drawn. First, RLT and AMI significantly promote the improvement of ACEE, while the improvement of ACEE and AMI further promotes RLT. Secondly, the causal relationship and influence mechanism of ACEE, RLT and AMI are interactive and multi-directional. For example, an increase in AMI promotes ACEE, but an increase in ACEE inhibits an increase in AMI. Finally, China has significant regional heterogeneity, and different regions have different interaction mechanisms. Local governments should consider the local economic base and technological level when implementing policies. This paper extends the analytical framework of ACEE, RLT, and AMI and provides a reference for governments to make policies.