IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i11p4532-d1402681.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of Influencing Factors and Prediction of the Peak Value of Industrial Carbon Emission in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region

Author

Listed:
  • Hanyue Fang

    (School of Economics and Management, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610101, China)

  • Hongbing Li

    (School of Engineering, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610101, China)

Abstract

The greenhouse effect has a negative impact on social and economic development. Analyzing the factors influencing industrial carbon emissions and accurately predicting the peak of industrial carbon emissions to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality is therefore vital. The annual data from 2000 to 2022 were used to study the influencing factors of carbon emission and the path of carbon emission reduction. In this study, the gray correlation method and stepwise regression method were used to explore the effective factors that met the significance test and the STIRPAT expansion model was constructed to analyze the characteristics and influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions in the Sichuan-Chongqing region. Finally, the changing trend of regional industrial carbon emissions is predicted by scenario analysis and four development scenarios are set up, which show that (1) from 2000 to 2022, the change in total industrial carbon emissions in Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality presents an inverted U-shaped trend, reaching a phased peak in 2013 and 2014, respectively, then declining and then rising again after 2018. (2) Industrial scale foreign trade dependence and population are the effective factors of industrial carbon emission in Sichuan, and all have positive effects. Energy structure and per capita income are the effective factors in Chongqing, showing negative and positive effects, respectively. (3) Analysis of four scenarios shows that the time range of the industrial carbon peak in the Sichuan-Chongqing region is 2030–2035 and that its peak height ranges from 81.98 million tons to 87.64 million tons. Among them, the green development scenario is the most consistent path to achieve the carbon peak as soon as possible; in this case, industrial carbon emissions will peak in 2030, in line with the national target time, and the lowest peak level of 81.98 million tons. The suggestions in this paper are continuously optimizing the energy structure, adjusting the industrial scale, and accelerating scientific and technological progress to achieve sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanyue Fang & Hongbing Li, 2024. "Analysis of Influencing Factors and Prediction of the Peak Value of Industrial Carbon Emission in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-24, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:11:p:4532-:d:1402681
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/11/4532/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/11/4532/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Junjie & Yan, Zengfeng & Bi, Wenbei & Ni, Pingan & Lei, Fuming & Yao, Shanshan & Lang, Jiachen, 2023. "Prediction and scenario simulation of the carbon emissions of public buildings in the operation stage based on an energy audit in Xi'an, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    2. Xuanwei Ning & Yushuang He & Jiayi Zhang & Chengliang Wu & Yang Zhang, 2023. "Analysis of Carbon Emission Projections and Reduction Potential of Resource-Dependent Urban Agglomerations from the Perspective of Multiple Scenarios—A Case Study of Hu-Bao-O-Yu Urban Agglomeration," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-25, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuxue Zhang & Rui Wang & Xingyuan Yang & He Zhang, 2023. "Can China Achieve Its Carbon Emission Peak Target? Empirical Evidence from City-Scale Driving Factors and Emission Reduction Strategies," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Xujie Sun & Xiaocun Zhang, 2024. "Assessment and Driving Factors of Embodied Carbon Emissions in the Construction Sector: Evidence from 2005 to 2021 in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-18, July.
    3. Haoran Li & Yang Liu & Yixiao Li & Xiaoxi Li & Shuyi Yan & Xi Zheng, 2024. "How to Realize Synergistic Emission Reduction in Future Urban Agglomerations: Spatial Planning Approaches to Reducing Carbon Emissions from Land Use: A Case Study of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-28, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:11:p:4532-:d:1402681. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.