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Analysis of Carbon Emission Projections and Reduction Potential of Resource-Dependent Urban Agglomerations from the Perspective of Multiple Scenarios—A Case Study of Hu-Bao-O-Yu Urban Agglomeration

Author

Listed:
  • Xuanwei Ning

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Yushuang He

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Jiayi Zhang

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Chengliang Wu

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Yang Zhang

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

The Hu-Bao-O-Yu urban agglomeration is an important energy exporting and high-end chemical base in China, and is an important source of carbon emissions in China. The early achievement of peak carbon emissions in this region is particularly crucial to achieving the national carbon emission reduction targets. However, there is a lack of multi-factor system dynamics analysis of resource-dependent urban agglomerations in Northwest China, as most studies have focused on single or static aspects of developed urban agglomerations. This paper analyses the relationship between carbon emissions and their influencing factors, constructs a carbon emission system dynamics model for the Hu-Bao-O-Yu urban agglomeration, and sets up different single regulation and comprehensive regulation scenarios to simulate and predict the carbon peak time, peak value, and emission reduction potential of each city and urban agglomeration under different scenarios. The results show that: (1) Hohhot and Baotou are expected to reach peak carbon by 2033 and 2031 respectively, under the baseline scenario, while other regions and the urban agglomeration will not be able to reach peak carbon by 2035. (2) Under single regulation scenarios, the effect of factors other than the energy consumption varies across cities, but the energy consumption and environmental protection input are the main factors affecting carbon emissions in the urban agglomeration. (3) A combination of the economic growth, industrial structure, energy policy, environmental protection, and technology investment is the best measure to achieve carbon peaking and enhance the carbon emission reduction in each region as soon as possible. In the future, we need to coordinate the economic development, energy structure optimisation and transformation, low-carbon transformation of industry, strengthen research on carbon sequestration technology, and further increase the investment in environmental protection to make the Hu-Bao-O-Yu urban agglomeration a resource-saving urban agglomeration with an optimal emission reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Xuanwei Ning & Yushuang He & Jiayi Zhang & Chengliang Wu & Yang Zhang, 2023. "Analysis of Carbon Emission Projections and Reduction Potential of Resource-Dependent Urban Agglomerations from the Perspective of Multiple Scenarios—A Case Study of Hu-Bao-O-Yu Urban Agglomeration," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-25, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:5:p:4250-:d:1082304
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shuhua Zhang & Jian Li & Bao Jiang & Tianmiao Guo, 2023. "Government Intervention, Structural Transformation, and Carbon Emissions: Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-19, January.
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    3. Nasser Shahsavari-Pour & Sadegh Bahador & Azim Heydari & Afef Fekih, 2022. "Analyzing Tehran’s Air Pollution Using System Dynamics Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-16, January.
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    2. Haoran Li & Yang Liu & Yixiao Li & Xiaoxi Li & Shuyi Yan & Xi Zheng, 2024. "How to Realize Synergistic Emission Reduction in Future Urban Agglomerations: Spatial Planning Approaches to Reducing Carbon Emissions from Land Use: A Case Study of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-28, April.

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