IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i6p5573-d1104110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimation of Large River Design Floods Using the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) Method

Author

Listed:
  • Slobodan Kolaković

    (Faculty of Technical Science, Department for Civil Engineering, University of Novi Sad, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia)

  • Vladimir Mandić

    (Faculty of Civil and Mechanical Engineering in Kraljevo, University of Kragujevac, 36000 Kraljevo, Serbia)

  • Milan Stojković

    (The Institute for Artificial Intelligence Research and Development of Serbia, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia)

  • Goran Jeftenić

    (Faculty of Technical Science, Department for Civil Engineering, University of Novi Sad, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia)

  • Danilo Stipić

    (Faculty of Technical Science, Department for Civil Engineering, University of Novi Sad, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia)

  • Srđan Kolaković

    (Faculty of Technical Science, Department for Civil Engineering, University of Novi Sad, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia)

Abstract

This research analyzes the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method for designed flood estimation needed to plan river levees, spillways and water facilities. In this study, a one-parameter exponential probability distribution has been modified by including the coefficient of λ, which represents an average number of floods and enables return period calculation within the specified period of time. The study also compares results using the Log-Pearson Type III distribution of maximum annual flows and a standard exponential distribution of the selected peaks over the threshold level. The aforementioned approach represents the standard mathematical tools for river flood design, while the proposed modification of the exponential distribution highlights the estimation of flood quantiles with longer return periods (e.g., 100, 1000 and 10,000 years). Moreover, the sensitivity analysis of the threshold selection is proposed to assist in the flood design flow estimation alongside the proposed modification of the exponential probability distribution. The study was carried out at the Danube River, and the Novi Sad hydrological station (Republic of Serbia) was used for the long-term recorded period from 1876 to 2015. The results suggest that the POT method derives more reliable estimates of design floods than the traditional statistical tools for flood estimation. The results suggest the theoretical values of the water level of the 10,000 years return period is equal to 867 cm, while the Log-Pearson Type III distribution of annual maximum flows underestimated this value for 14 cm.

Suggested Citation

  • Slobodan Kolaković & Vladimir Mandić & Milan Stojković & Goran Jeftenić & Danilo Stipić & Srđan Kolaković, 2023. "Estimation of Large River Design Floods Using the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:6:p:5573-:d:1104110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/6/5573/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/6/5573/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Milan Stojković & Stevan Prohaska & Nikola Zlatanović, 2017. "Estimation of flood frequencies from data sets with outliers using mixed distribution functions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(11), pages 2017-2035, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tímea Kiss & István Fehérváry, 2023. "Increased Riparian Vegetation Density and Its Effect on Flow Conditions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-21, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Milan Stojkovic & Slobodan P. Simonovic, 2019. "Mixed General Extreme Value Distribution for Estimation of Future Precipitation Quantiles Using a Weighted Ensemble - Case Study of the Lim River Basin (Serbia)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(8), pages 2885-2906, June.
    2. Wiesław Szulczewski & Wojciech Jakubowski, 2018. "The Application of Mixture Distribution for the Estimation of Extreme Floods in Controlled Catchment Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(10), pages 3519-3534, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:6:p:5573-:d:1104110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.