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Impacts of Climate Change on Permafrost and Hydrological Processes in Northeast China

Author

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  • Wei Shan

    (Institute of Cold Regions Science and Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
    Ministry of Education Observation and Research Station of Permafrost Geo-Environment System in Northeast China (MEORS-PGSNEC), Harbin 150040, China
    Collaborative Innovation Centre for Permafrost Environment and Road Construction and Maintenance in Northeast China (CIC-PERCM), Harbin 150040, China
    Low-Carbon Road Construction and Maintenance Engineering Technology Research Center in Northeast Permafrost Region of Heilongjiang Province (LCRCMET-HLJ), Harbin 150040, China)

  • Yan Wang

    (Institute of Cold Regions Science and Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China)

  • Ying Guo

    (Institute of Cold Regions Science and Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
    Ministry of Education Observation and Research Station of Permafrost Geo-Environment System in Northeast China (MEORS-PGSNEC), Harbin 150040, China
    Collaborative Innovation Centre for Permafrost Environment and Road Construction and Maintenance in Northeast China (CIC-PERCM), Harbin 150040, China
    Low-Carbon Road Construction and Maintenance Engineering Technology Research Center in Northeast Permafrost Region of Heilongjiang Province (LCRCMET-HLJ), Harbin 150040, China)

  • Chengcheng Zhang

    (Institute of Cold Regions Science and Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
    Ministry of Education Observation and Research Station of Permafrost Geo-Environment System in Northeast China (MEORS-PGSNEC), Harbin 150040, China
    Collaborative Innovation Centre for Permafrost Environment and Road Construction and Maintenance in Northeast China (CIC-PERCM), Harbin 150040, China
    Low-Carbon Road Construction and Maintenance Engineering Technology Research Center in Northeast Permafrost Region of Heilongjiang Province (LCRCMET-HLJ), Harbin 150040, China)

  • Shuai Liu

    (Institute of Cold Regions Science and Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China)

  • Lisha Qiu

    (Institute of Cold Regions Science and Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China)

Abstract

Permafrost is very sensitive to climate change, and the accelerated degradation of permafrost in Northeast China caused by global climate change will change the hydrological and ecological processes in the region and cause significant impacts on natural systems and human activities. In this study, the spatial distribution of permafrost in Northeast China from 2000 to 2020 was simulated using an improved ground freezing number model. The spatial and temporal variations of permafrost thickness and active layer thickness were estimated using the mean ground temperature method based on the obtained permafrost distribution. Based on the above simulation results, the mean annual ground temperature and field monitoring temperature gradient, based on remote sensing estimation and the ice content data of permafrost, were used to calculate the amount of permafrost ice storage in Northeast China for many years and to predict the amount of water released from permafrost in the future to better reveal the influence of permafrost changes on ecohydrological changes in the watershed. The results show that, in the past 20 years, climate warming has led to the degradation of the permafrost area in Northeast China from 3.31 × 10 5 km 2 to 2.70 × 10 5 km 2 , with a degradation rate of 18.43%; the stored ice in the permafrost has been released at an accelerated rate. The total ice storage volume in the permafrost of Northeast China is 3.178 × 10 11 m 3 . The amount of ice storage in the permafrost increases with latitude and altitude, and the ice storage volume decreases to 6.641 × 10 10 m 3 after 100 years, which is a decrease of 2.514 × 10 11 m 3 . The amount of water released due to permafrost degradation accounts for 79.11% of the current total ice storage, and the rate of water release reaches 2.51 × 10 9 m 3 /a. The release of water from permafrost has an important impact on river runoff whose source is at high altitudes, such as the Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains in Northeast China.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Shan & Yan Wang & Ying Guo & Chengcheng Zhang & Shuai Liu & Lisha Qiu, 2023. "Impacts of Climate Change on Permafrost and Hydrological Processes in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-22, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:6:p:4974-:d:1093942
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohammad Zare & Shahid Azam & David Sauchyn, 2022. "A Modified SWAT Model to Simulate Soil Water Content and Soil Temperature in Cold Regions: A Case Study of the South Saskatchewan River Basin in Canada," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-16, August.
    2. Wei Shan & Chengcheng Zhang & Ying Guo & Lisha Qiu & Zhichao Xu & Yan Wang, 2022. "Spatial Distribution and Variation Characteristics of Permafrost Temperature in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, July.
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