IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i4p3390-d1066528.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Non-Linear Determinants of Developing Countries’ Sovereign Ratings: Evidence from a Panel Threshold Regression (PTR) Model

Author

Listed:
  • Sami Ben Mim

    (IHEC, LaREMFiQ, Sousse University, Sousse 4000, Tunisia)

  • Ridha Nouira

    (LAMIDED & ISFF, Sousse University, Sousse 4000, Tunisia)

  • Fatma Mabrouk

    (Department of Economics, College of Business and Administration, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, P.O. Box 84428, Riyadh 11671, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

This paper investigates the non-linear effects produced by the main determinants of the sovereign ratings issued by Moody’s agency. Using a sample of 29 countries observed over the 2000–2019 period, we identify the factors leading a country to be classified, respectively, in the speculative, moderately speculative, and highly speculative grades. The fixed effect logit estimates reveal that the effects produced by the independent variables on the ratings are largely different from one class of assets to another. The second and main contribution of this study is that it highlights the non-linear effects produced by macroeconomic variables on the probability of downgrading a country from the investment to the speculative grade and from the moderately speculative to the highly speculative grade. Panel threshold regression (PTR) results reveal that control of corruption, external debt, government effectiveness, and domestic credits are the main variables producing such non-linear effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Sami Ben Mim & Ridha Nouira & Fatma Mabrouk, 2023. "Non-Linear Determinants of Developing Countries’ Sovereign Ratings: Evidence from a Panel Threshold Regression (PTR) Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-23, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:4:p:3390-:d:1066528
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/4/3390/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/4/3390/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Diego S. P. Oliveira & Helder Ferreira Mendonça, 2016. "Sovereign Credit Ratings in Developing Economies: New Empirical Assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 382-397, October.
    2. Cristina Bodea & Raymond Hicks, 2018. "Sovereign credit ratings and central banks: Why do analysts pay attention to institutions?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 340-365, November.
    3. Oliver Takawira & John W. Muteba Mwamba, 2022. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Analysis Using the Logistic Regression Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-24, March.
    4. Marc Flandreau & Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich & Harold Douglas James, 2003. "International Financial History in the Twentieth Century : System and Anarchy," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03416725, HAL.
    5. Zwart, Sanne, 2022. "How much is too much? Assessing the non-linear relationship between debt and sovereign creditworthiness," EIB Working Papers 2022/05, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    6. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    7. Reusens, Peter & Croux, Christophe, 2017. "Sovereign credit rating determinants: A comparison before and after the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 108-121.
    8. Hill, Paula & Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert, 2010. "Variations in sovereign credit quality assessments across rating agencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1327-1343, June.
    9. Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2009. "Heterogeneity of sovereign rating migrations in emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-165, June.
    10. Norbert Gaillard, 2012. "A Century of Sovereign Ratings," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-1-4614-0523-8, April.
    11. Karim McDaniels & Nico Palesch & Sanjam Suri & Zacharie Quiviger & John Walsh, 2021. "Updated Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Sovereigns," Discussion Papers 2021-16, Bank of Canada.
    12. Andreas Fuchs & Kai Gehring, 2017. "The Home Bias in Sovereign Ratings," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(6), pages 1386-1423.
    13. Eduardo Cavallo & Andrew Powell & Roberto Rigobon, 2013. "Do Credit Rating Agencies Add Value? Evidence From The Sovereign Rating Business," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 240-265, July.
    14. Antonio Afonso, 2003. "Understanding the determinants of sovereign debt ratings: Evidence for the two leading agencies," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 56-74, March.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich-to-Poor Capital Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 53-58, May.
    16. Liping Zheng, 2012. "Are Sovereign Credit Ratings Objective? A Tale of Two Agencies," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(5), pages 1-3.
    17. Ubok-Udom, Enamidem U., 1979. "Development through debt: Rationalizing the costs of external borrowing," Intereconomics – Review of European Economic Policy (1966 - 1988), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 14(4), pages 168-171.
    18. Beaulieu, Emily & Cox, Gary W. & Saiegh, Sebastian, 2012. "Sovereign Debt and Regime Type: Reconsidering the Democratic Advantage," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 709-738, October.
    19. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2011. "Short‐ and long‐run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    20. Teixeira, João C.A. & Silva, Francisco J.F. & Ferreira, Manuel B.S. & Vieira, José A.C., 2018. "Sovereign credit rating determinants under financial crises," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-13.
    21. Michael Connolly, 2007. "Measuring the Effect of Corruption on Sovereign Bond Ratings," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 309-323.
    22. Michael Connolly, 2007. "Measuring the Effect of Corruption on Sovereign Bond Ratings," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 309-323.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Slapnik, Ursula & Lončarski, Igor, 2023. "Understanding sovereign credit ratings: Text-based evidence from the credit rating reports," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. De Moor, Lieven & Luitel, Prabesh & Sercu, Piet & Vanpée, Rosanne, 2018. "Subjectivity in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 366-392.
    3. Dang, Huong & Partington, Graham, 2020. "Sovereign ratings and national culture," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Diego Silveira Pacheco Oliveira, 2019. "Central bank transparency and sovereign risk ratings: a panel data approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 417-433, April.
    5. Ben Hmiden, Oussama & Tatoutchoup, Didier & Nguimkeu, Pierre & Avelé, Donatien, 2024. "Discrepancy and cross-regional bias in sovereign credit ratings: Analyzing the role of public debt," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Slapnik, Ursula & Lončarski, Igor, 2021. "On the information content of sovereign credit rating reports: Improving the predictability of rating transitions☆," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    7. Cuadros-Solas, Pedro Jesús & Salvador Muñoz, Carlos, 2022. "Disentangling the sources of sovereign rating adjustments: An examination of changes in rating policies following the GFC," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
    9. Huong Dang, 2014. "How dimensions of national culture and institutional characteristics influence sovereign rating migration dynamics," ZenTra Working Papers in Transnational Studies 42 / 2014, ZenTra - Center for Transnational Studies.
    10. Nicolas Jannone Bellot, MaLuisa Marti Selva, Leandro Garcia Menendez, 2017. "Herding Behaviour among Credit Rating Agencies," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 56-83, March.
    11. Yalta, A. Talha & Yalta, A. Yasemin, 2018. "Are credit rating agencies regionally biased?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 682-694.
    12. Choy, Swee Yew & Chit, Myint Moe & Teo, Wing Leong, 2021. "Sovereign credit ratings: Discovering unorthodox factors and variables," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    13. A. Talha Yalta & Yasemin Yalta, 2018. "Are the Credit Rating Agencies Biased Against MENA Countries?," Working Papers 1274, Economic Research Forum, revised 19 Dec 2018.
    14. Luitel, Prabesh & Vanpée, Rosanne & De Moor, Lieven, 2016. "Pernicious effects: How the credit rating agencies disadvantage emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 286-298.
    15. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael, 2015. "Sovereign credit ratings in the European Union: A model-based fiscal analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 220-247.
    16. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2014. "Modelling the U.S. sovereign credit rating," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 202-218.
    17. Broto, Carmen & Molina, Luis, 2016. "Sovereign ratings and their asymmetric response to fundamentals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 206-224.
    18. Teixeira, João C.A. & Silva, Francisco J.F. & Ferreira, Manuel B.S. & Vieira, José A.C., 2018. "Sovereign credit rating determinants under financial crises," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-13.
    19. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2019. "Friends for the benefits: The effects of political ties on sovereign borrowing conditions," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland.
    20. Procasky, William J. & Ujah, Nacasius U., 2016. "Terrorism and its impact on the cost of debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 253-266.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:4:p:3390-:d:1066528. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.