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Consequence Assessment Model for Gasoline Transport: Belgrade Case Study Based on Multi-Agent Simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Strahinja Pantelić

    (Department for Road and Urban Transport, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Branko Milovanović

    (Department for Road and Urban Transport, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Marko Đogatović

    (Department for Postal Traffic, Networks and Technical Cybernetics, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Predrag Živanović

    (Department for Road and Urban Transport, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Stanko Bajčetić

    (Department for Road and Urban Transport, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Slaven Tica

    (Department for Road and Urban Transport, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Andrea Nađ

    (Department for Road and Urban Transport, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia)

Abstract

The transport of dangerous goods by road represents a specific problem, considering that these vehicles can have great negative effects on people and the environment in the event of an accident. In the last few decades, various methods have been defined for risk management in this area. Most of these methods are based on reducing the probability and the consequences of an accident. In a large number of cases, the probability of the occurrence is in much greater focus than the consequences. To fill this gap, we created a new model for assessing the consequences on the population in the event of a fire during gasoline transportation. The model is based on the hypothesis that hazard intensity is directly proportional to the intensity of the heat generated by the fire and inversely proportional to the distance from the accident. The model was implemented through a Belgrade case study with multi-agent simulation. The results of the paper show that there is a 43% probability that there would be between 11 and 28 casualties in the observed location in the event of an accident. This confirms the initial hypothesis and shows that the model can be successfully used to assess the consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Strahinja Pantelić & Branko Milovanović & Marko Đogatović & Predrag Živanović & Stanko Bajčetić & Slaven Tica & Andrea Nađ, 2023. "Consequence Assessment Model for Gasoline Transport: Belgrade Case Study Based on Multi-Agent Simulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-14, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:3:p:2598-:d:1053834
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Izdebski, Mariusz & Jacyna-Gołda, Ilona & Gołda, Paweł, 2022. "Minimisation of the probability of serious road accidents in the transport of dangerous goods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    2. Iveta Marková & Jozef Lauko & Linda Makovická Osvaldová & Vladimír Mózer & Jozef Svetlík & Mikuláš Monoši & Michal Orinčák, 2020. "Fire Size of Gasoline Pool Fires," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-14, January.
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