IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i23p16165-d1284687.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Bilateral Effects of Population Aging on Regional Carbon Emissions in China: Promotion or Inhibition Effect?

Author

Listed:
  • Xin Zhang

    (School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    Key Laboratory of Coastal Disaster and Defence, Ministry of Education, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Chenhui Ding

    (Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

  • Chao Liu

    (School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Xianzhong Teng

    (Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

  • Ruoman Lv

    (School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Yiming Cai

    (School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

Abstract

To achieve the high-quality model of green, low-carbon, and sustainable development in China, it is necessary to clarify the relationship between population aging and carbon emissions in regions. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2011 to 2020, this article employs a bilateral stochastic frontier model to estimate the promotion, inhibition, and net effects of population aging on regional carbon emissions. The results show that regional carbon emissions are decreased by 15.77% due to the inhibition effect, while they are increased by 10.63% due to the promotion effect. As a result, the net effect is that regional carbon emissions are decreased by 5.14% overall due to the composite action of the above effects. In addition, population aging in eastern, western, and central regions significantly reduces regional carbon emissions. And the inhibition effect of population aging on carbon emissions increases continuously and gradually holds the dominant position during the study period. Moreover, the inhibition effect in the eastern region is stronger than that in the central and western regions, which can be strengthened by improving the level of population aging and human capital, as well as urbanization. The conclusions are conducive to providing new perspectives and empirical evidence for understanding the connection between population aging and carbon emissions, as well as policy recommendations for tackling population aging, carbon emission reduction, carbon peaking, and carbon-neutral strategic goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin Zhang & Chenhui Ding & Chao Liu & Xianzhong Teng & Ruoman Lv & Yiming Cai, 2023. "The Bilateral Effects of Population Aging on Regional Carbon Emissions in China: Promotion or Inhibition Effect?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:23:p:16165-:d:1284687
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/23/16165/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/23/16165/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Creedy, John & Guest, Ross, 2008. "Population ageing and intertemporal consumption: Representative agent versus social planner," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 485-498, May.
    2. Guest, Ross, 2007. "Innovations in the macroeconomic modelling of population ageing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 101-119, January.
    3. Zhou, Yang & Wang, Heng & Qiu, Huanguang, 2023. "Population aging reduces carbon emissions: Evidence from China's latest three censuses," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    4. Mao, Rui & Xu, Jianwei, 2014. "Population aging, consumption budget allocation and sectoral growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 44-65.
    5. Subal Kumbhakar & Christopher Parmeter, 2009. "The effects of match uncertainty and bargaining on labor market outcomes: evidence from firm and worker specific estimates," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 1-14, February.
    6. Zhou, Yang & Liu, Yansui, 2016. "Does population have a larger impact on carbon dioxide emissions than income? Evidence from a cross-regional panel analysis in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 800-809.
    7. Liddle, Brantley & Lung, Sidney, 2010. "Age-Structure, Urbanization, and Climate Change in Developed Countries: Revisiting STIRPAT for Disaggregated Population and Consumption-Related Environmental Impacts," MPRA Paper 59579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Shi, Kaifang & Chen, Yun & Li, Linyi & Huang, Chang, 2018. "Spatiotemporal variations of urban CO2 emissions in China: A multiscale perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 218-229.
    9. Fan, Jianshuang & Zhou, Lin & Zhang, Yan & Shao, Shuai & Ma, Miao, 2021. "How does population aging affect household carbon emissions? Evidence from Chinese urban and rural areas," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    10. McDonald, Garry W. & Forgie, Vicky E. & MacGregor, Catherine, 2006. "Treading lightly: Ecofootprints of New Zealand's ageing population," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 424-439, March.
    11. Jaehyeok Kim & Hyungwoo Lim & Ha-Hyun Jo, 2020. "Do Aging and Low Fertility Reduce Carbon Emissions in Korea? Evidence from IPAT Augmented EKC Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-15, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhou, Yang & Wang, Heng & Qiu, Huanguang, 2023. "Population aging reduces carbon emissions: Evidence from China's latest three censuses," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    2. Fan, Jianshuang & Zhou, Lin & Zhang, Yan & Shao, Shuai & Ma, Miao, 2021. "How does population aging affect household carbon emissions? Evidence from Chinese urban and rural areas," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Ke Luo & Shuo Chen & Shixi Cui & Yuantao Liao & Yu He & Chunshan Zhou & Shaojian Wang, 2023. "Examining the Overall and Heterogeneous Impacts of Urban Spatial Structure on Carbon Emissions: A Case Study of Guangdong Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, September.
    4. Li, Kunming & Fang, Liting & He, Lerong, 2019. "How population and energy price affect China's environmental pollution?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 386-396.
    5. Chulin Pan & Huayi Wang & Hongpeng Guo & Hong Pan, 2021. "How Do the Population Structure Changes of China Affect Carbon Emissions? An Empirical Study Based on Ridge Regression Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, March.
    6. Jiping Sheng & Xiaoge Gao & Yongqi Sun, 2024. "Sustainability of the Food Industry: Ecological Efficiency and Influencing Mechanism of Carbon Emissions Trading Policy in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-25, March.
    7. Hyungwoo Lim & Jaehyeok Kim & Ha-Hyun Jo, 2020. "Population Age Structure and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Road Transportation: A Panel Cointegration Analysis of 21 OECD Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-18, October.
    8. Shuyu Li & Qiang Wang & Rongrong Li, 2024. "How aging impacts environmental sustainability—insights from the effects of social consumption and labor supply," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, December.
    9. Vélez-Henao, Johan-Andrés & Font Vivanco, David & Hernández-Riveros, Jesús-Antonio, 2019. "Technological change and the rebound effect in the STIRPAT model: A critical view," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1372-1381.
    10. Stephen K. Dimnwobi & Chukwunonso Ekesiobi & Chekwube V. Madichie & Simplice A. Asongu, 2021. "Population Dynamics and Environmental Quality in Africa," Working Papers 21/047, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    11. Ronald R. Kumar & Peter J. Stauvermann, 2019. "The Effects of a Revenue-Neutral Child Subsidy Tax Mechanism on Growth and GHG Emissions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-23, May.
    12. Claudia García-García & Catalina B. García-García & Román Salmerón, 2021. "Confronting collinearity in environmental regression models: evidence from world data," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(3), pages 895-926, September.
    13. Chen, Huadun & Du, Qianxi & Huo, Tengfei & Liu, Peiran & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2023. "Spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanism of carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    14. Fan, Fei & Dai, Shangze & Yang, Bo & Ke, Haiqian, 2023. "Urban density, directed technological change, and carbon intensity: An empirical study based on Chinese cities," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    15. Yao Zhao & Xuena Kong & Mahmood Ahmad & Zahoor Ahmed, 2023. "Digital Economy, Industrial Structure, and Environmental Quality: Assessing the Roles of Educational Investment, Green Innovation, and Economic Globalization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-24, January.
    16. Sun, Lu & Liu, Wenjing & Li, Zhaoling & Cai, Bofeng & Fujii, Minoru & Luo, Xiao & Chen, Wei & Geng, Yong & Fujita, Tsuyoshi & Le, Yiping, 2021. "Spatial and structural characteristics of CO2 emissions in East Asian megacities and its indication for low-carbon city development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    17. Z. Jun Lin & Shengqiang Liu & Fangcheng Sun, 2017. "The Impact of Financing Constraints and Agency Costs on Corporate R&D Investment: Evidence from China," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 3-42, March.
    18. Liddle, Brantley, 2013. "Population, Affluence, and Environmental Impact Across Development: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Modeling," MPRA Paper 52088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Subal C. Kumbhakar & Christopher F. Parmeter & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2022. "Stochastic Frontier Analysis: Foundations and Advances I," Springer Books, in: Subhash C. Ray & Robert G. Chambers & Subal C. Kumbhakar (ed.), Handbook of Production Economics, chapter 8, pages 331-370, Springer.
    20. Su Yang & Jie Shen & Hongyang Li & Beibei Zhang & Jinchao Ma & Baoquan Cheng, 2023. "Unraveling the U-Shaped Linkage: Population Aging and Carbon Efficiency in the Construction Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-15, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:23:p:16165-:d:1284687. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.