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Rock Burst Intensity-Grade Prediction Based on Comprehensive Weighting Method and Bayesian Optimization Algorithm–Improved-Support Vector Machine Model

Author

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  • Guangtuo Bao

    (School of Land and Resources Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
    Yunnan Key Laboratory of Sino-German Blue Mining and Utilization of Special Underground Space, Kunming 650093, China)

  • Kepeng Hou

    (School of Land and Resources Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
    Yunnan Key Laboratory of Sino-German Blue Mining and Utilization of Special Underground Space, Kunming 650093, China)

  • Huafen Sun

    (School of Land and Resources Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
    Yunnan Key Laboratory of Sino-German Blue Mining and Utilization of Special Underground Space, Kunming 650093, China)

Abstract

In order to accurately judge the tendency of rock burst disaster and effectively guide the prevention and control of rock burst disaster, a rock burst intensity-grade prediction model based on the comprehensive weighting of prediction indicators and Bayesian optimization algorithm–improved-support vector machine (BOA-SVM) is proposed for the first time. According to the main factors affecting the occurrence and intensity of rock burst, the rock stress coefficient ( σ θ / σ c ), brittleness coefficient ( σ c / σ t ) and elastic energy index ( W et ) are selected to construct the rock burst prediction indicator system. On the basis of the research of other scholars, according to the main performance and characteristics of rock burst, rock burst is divided into four intensity levels. The collected and sorted 120 sets of rock burst case data at home and abroad are taken as learning samples, and the T-SNE algorithm is used to perform dimensionality-reduction visualization processing on the sample data, visually display the distribution of samples of different grades, evaluate the representativeness of the sample data and prejudge the feasibility of the machine learning algorithm to distinguish different rock burst intensity levels. The combined improved analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) and Delphi method determine the subjective weight of the indicators; the combined entropy weight method and CRITIC method determine the objective weight of the indicator, and use the harmonic mean criterion of information theory to synthesize the subjective weight and objective weight of the indicator to obtain the comprehensive weight of the indicators. After weighted prediction indicators, a rock burst intensity-grade prediction model is constructed based on the support vector machine, and the hyperparameters of three types of support vector machines are improved by using the Bayesian optimization algorithm. Then, the prediction accuracy of different models is calculated by the random cross-validation method, and the feasibility and effectiveness of the rock burst intensity-grade prediction model is verified. In order to evaluate the generalization and engineering applicability of the proposed model, 20 groups of rock burst case data from the Maluping mine and Daxiangling tunnel are introduced to predict the rock burst intensity grade. The results show that the accuracy of the rock burst intensity-grade prediction model based on comprehensive weighting and BOA-SVM is as high as 93.30%, which is of higher accuracy and better effect than the ordinary model, and can provide warning information with a higher fault tolerance rate, which provides a new way of thinking for rock burst intensity-grade prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Guangtuo Bao & Kepeng Hou & Huafen Sun, 2023. "Rock Burst Intensity-Grade Prediction Based on Comprehensive Weighting Method and Bayesian Optimization Algorithm–Improved-Support Vector Machine Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-27, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:22:p:15880-:d:1278963
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Weizhang Liang & Asli Sari & Guoyan Zhao & Stephen D. McKinnon & Hao Wu, 2020. "Short-term rockburst risk prediction using ensemble learning methods," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1923-1946, November.
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