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A Lower Threat than I Thought: How the Analysis of the Interdependence between Risks Influences Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions

Author

Listed:
  • Nuru Kipato

    (School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AR, UK)

  • Peter Dorward

    (School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AR, UK)

  • Graham Clarkson

    (School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AR, UK)

Abstract

Smallholder farming businesses are exposed to numerous risks which significantly affect productivity, income, and farmers’ livelihoods. These risks are interdependent in nature and co-occur, which makes managing a single risk in isolation an inadequate approach. This study examined how the analysis of the interdependence between risks can influence farmers’ perceptions of risk. The study employed focus group discussions and participatory activities, which involved the use of Scored Causal Diagrams (SCDs) to analyse risks with farmers and assess changes in perception. The results showed that the analysis of the interdependence between risks influenced a change in perceptions of risk for farmers, by enabling farmers to identify the important risks, cause-and-effect relationships between risks, and the root causes of risks. This also led to changes in the farmers’ own perceived ability to manage these risks. The analysis of the interdependence between risks provides insight into the design of holistic approaches for the management of risks. It enables farmers to identify the cause-and-effect relationships between risks, identify risks which contribute substantially to hindering their farming goals, and identify entry points for managing multiple interdependent risks. A unique contribution of this study is it presents a process for eliciting and analysing farmers’ perceptions of the interdependence between risks and explores how such analysis contributes to changes in farmers’ perceptions of individual risks. These changes in perceptions of individual risks ultimately shape farmers’ decisions about whether and how to adapt risk-management behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Nuru Kipato & Peter Dorward & Graham Clarkson, 2023. "A Lower Threat than I Thought: How the Analysis of the Interdependence between Risks Influences Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:19:p:14467-:d:1253339
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Siegrist & Joseph Árvai, 2020. "Risk Perception: Reflections on 40 Years of Research," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2191-2206, November.
    2. Richard Kofi Asravor, 2019. "Farmers’ risk preference and the adoption of risk management strategies in Northern Ghana," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(5), pages 881-900, April.
    3. Thi Tam Duong & Tom Brewer & Jo Luck & Kerstin Zander, 2019. "A Global Review of Farmers’ Perceptions of Agricultural Risks and Risk Management Strategies," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, January.
    4. Yaniv Hanoch & Jonathan Rolison & Alexandra M. Freund, 2019. "Reaping the Benefits and Avoiding the Risks: Unrealistic Optimism in the Health Domain," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 792-804, April.
    5. Adelaja, Adesoji & George, Justin, 2019. "Effects of conflict on agriculture: Evidence from the Boko Haram insurgency," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 184-195.
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